Dayton vs Loyola-Chicago Odds, Picks and Predictions: Ramblers Can Hang With the Flyers

The Loyola Chicago Ramblers are set to host the Dayton Flyers in Atlantic-10 action on Friday.

The Flyers are making a push for the A-10 championship, which will be crucially important since they look like a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament. Although the Ramblers have struggled in conference play and will miss out on March Madness, they did push the Flyers into overtime when these schools clashed two weeks ago.

College basketball betting lines opened with Dayton as 7-point road favorites for the rematch tonight. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Dayton vs. Loyola-Chicago on February 17.

Dayton vs Loyola-Chicago best odds

Dayton vs Loyola-Chicago picks and predictions

When you look at the KenPom ratings and NET rankings, there is a massive difference between these schools. The Dayton Flyers are 72nd in Adjusted Efficiency Margin according to KenPom (78th in NET), while the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers are 246th in KenPom and 265th in NET. 

That's a major reason why we're seeing the Flyers as significant road favorites in this contest. However, as we saw when these teams clashed back on January 31, the difference between the two programs might not be as wide.

The Ramblers entered that contest as 14-point road underdogs but lost by just four points in overtime. 

The Ramblers shot 49% from the floor in that contest (including 13-25 from beyond the arc) and they've actually been shooting the ball well all season, ranking 43rd in the country with a 46.9 FG% against Division 1 opponents.

Loyola's biggest problem on offense has been turnovers, but the Flyers rank just 299th in opponent turnover rate (16%), with that number dropping to 12.8% in their last three games. Even when the Flyers force teams to cough the ball up, their inability to run the floor means that they don't convert those TOs into quick buckets on the other end. 

Both of these teams play at an extremely slow pace and Dayton's lack of a scoring punch will make it tough for them to cover this spread on the road. 

Add in the fact that the Flyers are coming off a pair of massive victories against their toughest opponents in the conference and this could be a letdown spot. I'll take the home side with the points.

My best bet: Loyola-Chicago +7 (-110 at bet365)

Dayton vs Loyola-Chicago spread analysis

Loyola is having a tough inaugural season in the A-10 after coming off back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances, as the Ramblers are currently last in the conference with a 3-10 record.

However, while they failed to cover the spread for eight consecutive games earlier this season, they've played better lately and are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. In the Ramblers' previous contest, they squeaked by UMass on the road by a score of 64-62. 

Loyola is led by forward Philip Alston (14.4 points and 5.6 rebounds per game) and point guard Braden Norris (11.4 ppg and 4.0 assists per game).

Dayton is in a three-way tie for second place in the conference with a 9-4 mark. The Flyers are coming off back-to-back victories against VCU and Saint Louis which were massive when you consider that those are two of the highest-rated schools in the A-10. 

The Flyers have a massive lineup anchored by 6-foot-8 forward Toumani Camara (14.0 ppg, 9.3 rpg), along with a pair of 6-foot-10 big men in DaRon Holmes II (17.5 ppg, 7.9 rpg) and Mustapha Amzil (9.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg). 

Thanks to that size advantage, the Flyers are 16th in the country in rebound rate (54.1%) while the smaller Ramblers rank 240th (48.9%). The Flyers have also been playing lockdown defense and are allowing just 61.2 ppg while ranking eighth in opponent effective field goal percentage (44.8%).

Meanwhile, Loyola's defense has gone from one of the best in the country to one of the worst. The Ramblers finished last season 17th in defensive efficiency but sit all the way at 269th this season. They are also surrendering 76.5 ppg on 47.4% shooting in conference play. 

Dayton vs Loyola-Chicago Over/Under analysis

Despite a low total of 130.5 for this contest, both of these teams are actually very efficient when it comes to shooting the ball inside the arc. The Ramblers are 24th in the country in 2-point percentage (55.2%) while the Flyers are 34th (54.5%).

However, both teams play at a sluggish pace and give the ball away way too much. Dayton is 339th in the country in adjusted tempo while Loyola ranks 260th. The Flyers are also 272nd in turnover rate (19.4%) while the Ramblers are 359th (22.7%). 

Factor in Dayton's terrific defense and it's easy to see why this number is so low despite both these squads going well over this number when they faced off in January. 

Keep in mind that while Dayton has an impressive 57.1 EFG% at home, that number drops to just 48.5% on the road. The Flyers' tendency to go ice-cold from the field on the road might prevent them from being able to exploit Loyola's shoddy defense tonight. 

Dayton vs Loyola-Chicago betting trend to know

The Flyers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. Find more college basketball betting trends for Dayton vs. Loyola-Chicago.

Dayton vs Loyola-Chicago game info

Dayton vs Loyola-Chicago key injuries

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