Georgetown vs Villanova Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wildcats Can't Slow Down Epps

Life on the NCAA Tournament bubble rolls along as the Villanova Wildcats welcome the Georgetown Hoyas in a game Nova can't afford to drop.

The Cats fought hard against Connecticut but didn't have enough in the tank and saw a late second-half run by the Huskies get out of control in a 24-point loss. Now they face a situation for the rest of the season where each game has the potential to be one that eliminates them from tournament discussion.

There's no denying the Hoyas have played better lately, and one wonders if first-year head coach Ed Cooley's impact is now being felt. They'll enter this game with just nine wins but, again, playing their best basketball of the season. 

Where does the value lie in this game? Find out when I look at the college basketball odds and give my free college basketball picks for Georgetown vs. Villanova on Tuesday February 27.

Georgetown vs Villanova best odds

Georgetown vs Villanova picks and predictions

Parsing through what's improved for this Georgetown team over the last month and what's smoke in mirrors can be difficult. However, it starts on the offensive side of the ball. 

The proof is in the numbers. If you're using Bart Torvik rankings from the season, they rate the Hoyas 105th in offensive efficiency. Use them for the last two weeks, it rates them 89th.

I'll be looking to take advantage of Georgetown's marketed offensive improvement and hit the prop market for a play here. I'm looking at the Hoyas' best scorer in Jayden Epps, whose had two incredible scoring performances of over 30 points in his last two games. You'd expect a stinker game to come up at some point, but it's not happening here.

Ironically, one of the worst scoring outputs that Epps had in 2024 came in the first matchup against Villanova when he scored nine points. That's part of the reason that I like him so much here. Epps had a highly inefficient night from the field, and some of the shots he missed were open ones that he usually made.

Also, backing Epps in a bounce-back attempt against a team the second go around has traditionally been a good move. It's been a constant throughout his career, and we have two data points this year.

He faced Butler and scored 12 points, then followed that up with 16 in the second matchup. Additionally, he faced Depaul to open the conference slate for the Hoyas and scored just seven points. His previous game was the rematch against the Demons, and he dropped a conference season-high 33 points.

There's also the defensive makeup of Villanova. It's been stout in some places, but mostly, across the board, it's been an average group. One of the places it's been particularly poor is defending screening actions.

The Wildcats enter this matchup ranking in the Bottom 12% of college basketball in points allowed per set on screening actions. That's also one of the worst in the Big East. Epps has faced other teams in the conference with similar issues and performed well against them.

My best bet: Jayden Epps Over 15.5 points (-130 at DraftKings)

Georgetown vs Villanova same-game parlay

Jayden Epps Over 15.5 points

TJ Bamba Over 12.5 points

+198 at DraftKings

Two player props will make up my same-game parlay, and to go along with my best bet, I'm going back to the TJ Bamba market. We cashed with him against Creighton over the weekend: let's aim to do it again.

Talented spot-up shooters have gutted the Hoyas. They are the worst in the conference defending shooters, allowing over a point per possession on spot-up sets. Bamba is the best shooter on this Villanova team and will get plenty of good looks tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Georgetown vs Villanova spread and Over/Under analysis

My projections perfectly align with the 16-point spread here, and I have no interest in getting on a side. 

We've seen some buy on the Hoyas, likely because of the improvements they've made in the last month. Still, I'm finding it hard to back a team that still doesn't finish games well on the road. Georgetown nearly blew a double-digit lead against one of the worst teams in the country in Depaul coming into this one.

The total is around 139.5 and I lean to the Over. 

Georgetown's defenses is all types of putrid, and the Villanova team has enough shooters to punish. Meanwhile, the Hoyas' offense has improved over the last few weeks and is well-equipped to attack the weak points of this Villanova defense. It would fit with what has been a profitable bet when Georgetown hits the floor this year, as eight of its last ten games have gone Over.

Georgetown vs Villanova betting trend to know

Georgetown has hit the game total Over in 17 of their last 29 games (+3.85 Units / 12% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Georgetown vs. Villanova.

Georgetown vs Villanova game info

Georgetown vs Villanova key injuries

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