The Louisville Cardinals face off against the Oklahoma Sooners in the Battle 4 Atlantis Final in the Bahamas today, with tip-off set for 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Feast Week has seen plenty of upsets, which is why my Louisville vs. Oklahoma predictions are taking the points with the underdogs. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this clash on Friday, November 29.
Louisville vs Oklahoma prediction
My best bet
Oklahoma +3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
There's a lot of volatility with betting on college basketball early in the season, and that's become even more magnified during this era of mass transfers. That's been evident in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament, which has seen multiple upsets of ranked teams.
The Louisville Cardinals hammered the Indiana Hoosiers 89-61 as 4-point underdogs in the first round of this tourney and outlasted West Virginia in overtime last night. The Oklahoma Sooners edged Providence 79-77 in the opening round before beating Arizona 82-77 as 7.5-point dogs in the semifinals.
There isn't a much data on either team since they've played few games against competitive opponents and have undergone so much personnel turnover. The Cardinals overhauled their entire roster under new head coach Pat Kelsey in the offseason. Meanwhile, the Sooners said goodbye to six of their Top 8 rotation players from last season, including their two leading scorers.
At this point in the season, analytics sites like Ken Pom and Bart Torvik tend to bring us the most accurate data points for analyzing teams. Those sites have these teams rated very close with KenPom and Bart Torvik projecting a 1-point Louisville win today. That makes the Sooners a tempting play, catching 3.5 points.
There are also a few areas where Oklahoma has a clear advantage. The Sooners are 82nd in the country in 3-point percentage (36.5%) and torched Arizona from deep last night. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are outside the Top 250 in 3-point percentage (29.8%) but attempt threes at the 12th highest rate in the country. In addition, the Sooners are 19th in the country in free throw percentage (79.3%), while the Cardinals are 145th with a 72.5 FT%.
Both of these teams do a great job of pressuring ball-handlers but Oklahoma has done a slightly better job of taking care of the ball lately. The Sooners have a turnover rate of 18.7% over their last three games while the Cardinals are at 21.5%. Those are the kind of edges that can make a difference in a close contest.
Louisville vs Oklahoma same-game parlay
Oklahoma +3.5
Under 150
These teams like to force turnovers and turn them into quick baskets on the other end. However, they also defend very well in transition with Oklahoma ranking 16th in the country in transition defense (per ShotQualityBets) and Louisville 23rd.
The Cardinals are 18th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and they are 5-1 to the Under this season. When you also factor in the tired legs that both teams could have playing in three straight days, they might not be able to push the tempo at their usual pace.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Louisville vs Oklahoma odds
Louisville vs Oklahoma live odds
Louisville vs Oklahoma opening odds
- Spread: Louisville -2.5 | Oklahoma +2.5
- Moneyline: Louisville -150 | Oklahoma +125
- Over/Under: Over 150 | Under 150
Odds courtesy of bet365
Louisville vs Oklahoma betting trend to know
The Under is 19-13 in Louisville's last 32 games (+4.75 Units / 13% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Oklahoma.
How to watch Louisville vs Oklahoma
| Location: | Imperial Arena, Nassau, BS |
| Date: | Friday, 11-29-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Louisville vs Oklahoma key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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