Arkansas brought in head coach John Calipari to replace the departed Eric Musselman, and what came with that is what usually follows him: elite talent and boundless confidence (mostly from his words rather than the team's play).
The Tennessee Volunteers rolled through the non-conference slate, but my Arkansas vs. Tennessee predictions expect the Razorbacks to put up a fight this afternoon.
Read why in my college basketball picks for January 4.
Arkansas vs Tennessee prediction
My best bet
Arkansas +12 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The dynamic requiring one to buy into a Calipari-coached team requires mental gymnastics.
It's an understanding the offense is archaic (as evidenced by a rim and three rate in the 300s nationally, IE, a lot of mid-range shots), but it's also an agreement on the trade-off: Some of the best talent resides under his watch (look at a mock draft).
I don't know what will happen in March, but Arkansas has seen that talent start to blossom. If I know anything from these Calipari teams of the past, the market is slow to catch on to that development. That's the case here.
Some elements of the Hogs resemble Kentucky teams of the past. It's Calipari's first team in a while with proper rim protection, posting a block rate ranked ninth nationally.
This will help slow down Tennessee, which is heavily rim-focused. Entering this matchup, the Vols take about 45% of their shots there. While this isn't a crazy amount, it's still above the national average by a decent margin and should be reduced today.
I've mentioned Tennessee's two-way regression, which has been lingering for some time now. However, it's still omnipresent in this handicap.
Teams will not continue shooting 24% against you from three, no matter who you are, but that holds even more true when you've already been graded three losses via ShotQualityBets. Eventually, that's all going to catch up with your team.
Arkansas has good enough 3-point shooters to punish Tennessee. Today, they come into this game with three shooting 40% or higher from deep: Johnell Davis, Boogie Fland, and Zvonimir Ivisic. I suspect at least two of them can sustain numbers close to that for the entirety of the season.
"We ready," Fland said, beginning SEC play earlier this week.
I believe him. This is too many points for the direction Arkansas is trending.
Arkansas vs Tennessee same-game parlay
Arkansas +12.5
DJ Wagner Over 2.5 assists
DJ Wagner has gone Over this line in every game against a power-four opponent this year, sans the early season matchup against Baylor.
I would like him to exceed this number simply because he should benefit from Arkansas hitting some long bombs, as previously suggested. Not only has Wagner exceeded this number three of four times against power four teams, but he's also exceeded it all but time when Arkansas hit double-digit threes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Arkansas vs Tennessee odds
Arkansas vs Tennessee live odds
Arkansas vs Tennessee opening odds
- Spread: Arkansas +12 | Tennessee -12
- Moneyline: Arkansas +520 | Tennessee -850
- Over/Under: Over 141.5 | Under 141.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arkansas vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Arkansas has hit the moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+6.70 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Arkansas vs Tennessee
| Location: |
Food City Center, Knoxville, TN
|
| Date: | Saturday, 1-4-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Arkansas vs Tennessee key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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