Saturday afternoon sees San Diego State looking to bounce back when they travel to face Boise State in a key Mountain West college basketball showdown.
The Aztecs have had a week to figure out how they blew an 18-point lead in a loss to Utah State, and to look for a way to shore up their rebounding issues. For the Broncos, a five-game winning streak has them on the edge of becoming a Quad 1 team and a win here would be a big boost to the resume.
Our San Diego State vs. Boise State predictions discusses why the Broncos will cause real problems for a strong Aztec defense.
Read on for our college basketball picks for Saturday, January 4.
San Diego State vs Boise State prediction
My best bet
Boise State -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The San Diego State Aztecs’ defensive metrics are pretty impressive at first glance. They rank 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 10th in effective FG% defense, sixth in FG% defense inside the arc, and 35th in 3-pt FG% defense. They’re also blocking shots at the third-highest rate in the country.
Those numbers, however, hide some very concerning issues. The biggest one is their inability to rebound the basketball. San Diego State ranks 269th in defensive rebound rate, allows one of the highest 3-point rates in college basketball, and ranks 201st in opponent free-throw attempts allowed.
And those areas are where the Boise State Broncos can punish them. The Broncos have posted an offensive rebound rate of 34.8% on the season, the 42nd best mark in college basketball. They don’t allow many second chances at the other end either, with the fourth-best defensive rebound rate nationally.
But while the Broncos haven’t been getting shots to fall from deep, they excel at getting to the line. They rank 31st in free throw rate, averaging 0.41 FTs per FG attempt. Boise State also ranks Top 10 in assists per basket allowed, an area where the Aztecs really struggle.
Boise State ranks 21st in adjusted shot quality and 44th in shot selection according to ShotQuality. And while the shots haven’t been falling that much, the offensive rebounding allows the Broncos to get extra possessions.
Alvaro Cardenas has been capitalizing on those broken situations, a key reason why he’s got an assist rate of 37.1% on the year. While the Aztecs are only allowing 11.2 assists per game, they rank 179th in dimes per basket made.
San Diego State isn’t bad offensively, but the Aztecs get to the line at one of the lowest rates in college basketball and make fewer than half their shots inside the arc. The Broncos are 72nd in ADJDE, and have a Top 50 steal rate on defense.
The Aztecs are traveling over 1,000 miles for this game, and haven’t played since that collapse against Utah State on December 28. And while the Aztecs clearly have the better resume so far, this will be just their second road game of the season. The other was a 22-point win over a Fresno State team that is currently a Quad 4 team.
Boise State’s size and aggressiveness going to the rim will be a problem for the Aztecs. Their offensive rebound rate of 40% over the last five games coincides with a shift towards crashing the glass, and that will lead to plenty of second-chance opportunities and trips to the line. That will negate the San Diego State defensive prowess, and allow the Broncos to cover the spread at home.
San Diego State vs Boise State same-game parlay
Boise State -4.5
Tyson Degenhart Over 6.5 rebounds
Miles Byrd 2+ threes made
Tyson Degenhart is the leading scorer for the Broncos, but it’s his rebounding that has been key during this five-game winning streak. He’s posted an offensive rebound rate of 9.4% in that span, and has averaged eight boards in his last four games. Utah State had three different players grab 7+ boards against the Aztecs, and Degenhart will do the same here.
While the Aztecs don’t make a lot of long-range shots, they’ve got a consistent shooter in Miles Byrd. Their leading scorer has hit multiple treys in four straight games, despite attempting just 20 shots from outside the arc. He’s shooting nearly 48% from 3-pt range over his last five games, and they’ll need him to hit a few today if they want to keep the game close.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
San Diego State vs Boise State odds
San Diego State vs Boise State live odds
San Diego State vs Boise State opening odds
- Spread: San Diego State +4.5 | Boise State -4.5
- Moneyline: San Diego State +160 | Boise State -190
- Over/Under: Over 137 | Under 137
Odds courtesy of bet365
San Diego State vs Boise State betting trend to know
Boise State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+4.10 Units / 19% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for San Diego State vs. Boise State.
How to watch San Diego State vs Boise State
| Location: | ExtraMile Arena, Boise, Idaho |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-4-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
San Diego State vs Boise State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
