Sunday Night Football between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings has a chance to be the most bet-on game of the year. With its massive total and winning implications, this game has everything a bettor wants to wrap up the regular season.
Thanks to a defense that has more than 10 players on the IR, my Vikings vs. Lions predictions believe Jared Goff and the Detroit passing game will continue to do the heavy lifting for a team that has a projected team total of 30 points.
These are my best NFL picks for Sunday Night Football between the Vikings and Lions on Sunday, January 5.
Kick-off is set for 8:20 p.m. ET, live on NBC.
Vikings vs Lions SNF prediction
- Spread predictions: Minnesota +3 (-110)
- Moneyline prediction: Minnesota moneyline (+130)
- Over/Under predictions: Over 57 (-110)
- Best bet: Jared Goff 3+ passing TDs (+175)
Vikings vs Lions spread
Detroit has moved off the -2.5 to a flat -3 and even with their 11-5 ATS mark, I think the three points are too much in this spot. Detroit has been playing in weekly shootouts thanks to a defense that has more than 10 guys on the shelf.
Minnesota has done well ATS and is 11-4-1 ATS and has failed to cover just one spread over its last seven games. I think there should be some resistance on the -3.
Vikings vs Lions moneyline
The Vikings are about as good a team that you can back for +130. Personally, I think there are better ways to find +130 or better odds in the prop market, but I’d much rather have Minnesota at +130 than pay 55 points on the Lions’ ML.
Vikings vs Lions total
This opened at 52.5 and hit as high as 57 this week. Although this could close as the highest total of the year of any game (Buffalo/Detroit closed at 55.5), I have zero interest in this Under even at 57. The Lions have scored 150 points over the last four games and their defense and lack of RB depth have increased their run rates. If this game turned out to be BUF/DET part two, I wouldn’t be surprised.
My best bet
Jared Goff 3+ passing TDs (+175 at bet365)
My analysis
Jared Goff has passed for 14 touchdowns over his last four games, hitting the 3+ TD mark in each contest. The offense has scored 150 points over that stretch with a ratio of passing TDs to rushing ones at 14:5. It’s an offense that lost David Montgomery and is leaning on Goff even more with a thin run game and paper-thin defense.
The Minnesota Vikings’ defense will also help Goff hit a trio of TDs as Brian Flores’ unit is the No.1 rush defense, per EPA/rush. It can be beaten through the air and its league-high blitz rate will leave a lot of single coverage on some serious Detroit weapons who can continue to bust huge gains.
Goff is averaging 2.5 total passing TDs per game indoors at Ford Field this year and is 4-1 to the Over 2.5 passing TDs at home since his Week 5 bye.
The Detroit Lions are passing the ball more now than ever due to the defense and the injury to Montgomery. Over the last three weeks, they have been running at 38% compared to their season average of 48% which was a Top 10 mark. Couple that with the playoff stakes and the Minnesota run defense, it’s going to be another big game scoring from Goff and this Detroit passing game.
Vikings vs Lions SNF same-game parlay (SGP)
Jared Goff 3+ pass TDs
Jordan Addison anytime TD
Sam LaPorta anytime TD
With a game that could see 60+ points, it's a very heavy-scoring SGP this week.
Goff has been passing even more with the issues on defense and the loss of Montgomery. Over their last four games, they have 19 total TDs with 14 of those coming via the pass.
Jordan Addison and Sam LaPorta are two great TD targets outside of the WR1s and running backs. Addison has seven TDs over his last seven games with a score in five of them. Aaron Jones is banged up so perhaps Sam Darnold's offense will want to rely on the pass a little more Sunday night. Since Week 12, no WR has had more red-zone receptions than Addison's 12 on 13 targets.
To stack the Goff pass TD prop, I'm adding TE Sam LaPorta. Only Trey McBride and Travis Kelce have more RZ targets since Week 12 than LaPorta who has TDs in back-to-back games entering Week 18. There is going to be a lot of scoring Sunday night and the SGP options are pretty wide open.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Vikings vs Lions odds
Vikings vs Lions live odds
Vikings vs Lions opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +3 | Detroit -3
- Moneyline: Minnesota +130 | Detroit -155
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Vikings vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread has met some resistance at -3 as it did hit -2.5 around Tuesday morning but was bet back to the opening number of 3 later that afternoon. Detroit closed as a 1-point road dog in Minnesota back in Week 7 with a much healthier roster.
- The total got smashed after opening at 52.5. It hit as high as 58 before taking some Under money. The last meeting closed at 49 with Detroit winning 31-29 on a 44-yard field goal with 15 seconds remaining.
- Detroit has 11 guys on defense currently on the IR while Minnesota comes into this game at near full health with no important injuries to note.
Vikings vs Lions betting trend to know
The Minnesota Vikings have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 34% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Lions.
How to watch Vikings vs Lions game info
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-5-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Vikings vs Lions latest injuries
Vikings vs Lions weather
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