Two teams that shattered the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament bracket will square off for a trip to the final, as the Louisville Cardinal take on the West Virginia Mountaineers. Tip from the Imperial Arena in Nassau, Bahamas is scheduled at noon ET.
After the emotional high both teams experienced in the opening round, our Louisville vs West Virginia prediction calls for a slight letdown as both teams play their first back-to-back games this season.
I explain why the Louisville moneyline is ultimately the play in our college basketball picks for Thursday, November 28.
Louisville vs West Virginia prediction
My best bet
Louisville moneyline (-135 at bet365)
My analysis
The West Virginia Mountaineers picked up their first signature win in style, going toe-to-toe with the third-ranked Gonzaga, and hanging the first loss of the season on the Bulldogs in an 86-78 OT triumph.
WVU held the Bulldogs to just 40% shooting, including a 7-for-21 mark from 3-point range, just a 33.3% clip. The Mountaineers were +6 in rebounding and outscored Gonzaga from the free-throw line by four points.
Perhaps the only concern was their bench, which mustered a total of two points on seven field-goal attempts and was outscored by 28.
The Mountaineers will face off with another upset specialist in the Louisville Cardinals, who crushed the 14th-ranked Indiana Hoosiers 89-61.
The Cardinals built an eight-point lead at the break before truly taking off in the second half, outscoring IU 52-32 to win going away.
Their offense was potent and accurate, shooting 56.9% from the field, including 10-for-27 from distance.
On the other end of the court, they held the Hoosiers to a rough 33.3% shooting night while forcing 23 turnovers and converting those into 30 big points.
KenPom has Louisville ranked 38th overall, with WVU not far back at 57th. Both are similarly ranked across the board offensively, with the Cardinals putting up 81 points per game to the Mountaineers’ 77.5.
Both teams are powered by defense, though. Louisville is 21st in KemPom’s defensive efficiency metric while West Virginia is 41st.
Fatigue has to play a factor, perhaps even the factor. West Virginia only goes eight deep, and starters Sencire Harris, Tucker DeVries, and Javon Small each played 42 minutes, with Amani Hansberry playing 37.
Not one Louisville starter even hit the 30-minute mark, and all 13 players in the Bahamas got some playing time, so it's likely the more rested squad.
Look for the Cardinals to advance to the final in a battle of evenly matched sides.
Louisville vs West Virginia same-game parlay
Louisville moneyline
Javon Small Under 15.5 points
Chucky Hepburn Under 4.5 assists
This one feels more like a rock fight than a shootout, so we’re looking at the Unders for a pair of star players.
Javon Small came up huge in the win over Gonzaga, pouring in a season-high 31 points. That was after a nice 23-point effort in a win over Iona. But he’ll be up against a strong Louisville defense. The last time he faced a top-tier defense was in a loss to Pitt, where he was held to 12 points on 5-for-14 shooting.
Save for a standout 29-point effort from Bellarmine’s Ben Johnson in a 32-point blowout loss, Louisville has only allowed one other 20-point scorer this season.
Louisville senior guard Chucky Hepburn had his best assist day of the season, doling out 10 dimes against Indiana. However, that might have slightly over-inflated his line against WVU. In his previous four games, he had topped his 4.5 assist line just once.
It will be close, but we’re taking the Under to wrap this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Louisville vs West Virginia odds
Louisville vs West Virginia live odds
Louisville vs West Virginia opening odds
- Spread: Louisville -2.5 (-110) | West Virginia +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Louisville -135 | West Virginia +115
- Over/Under: Over 151.5 (-110) | Under 151.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Louisville vs West Virginia betting trend to know
West Virginia has won six straight day games vs ACC competition. Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. West Virginia.
How to watch Louisville vs West Virginia
| Location: | Imperial Arena, Nassau, Bahamas |
| Date: | Thursday, 11-28-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Louisville vs West Virginia key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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