The wheels are wobbling on the Illinois Fighting Illini as they head into a busy week of basketball action.
Illinois is coming off a collapse against Michigan State and just lost a promising piece of its rotation ahead of tonight’s trip to Kohl Center to play the Wisconsin Badgers.
Wisconsin lost by six points on the road to the Fighting Illini back in December but my Illinois vs. Wisconsin predictions don't expect a repeat performance.
I’m backing the Badgers with my best college basketball picks on Tuesday, February 18.
Illinois vs Wisconsin prediction
My best bet
Wisconsin Badgers -4 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
This Tuesday trip to Wisconsin throws a lot at the Illinois Fighting Illini at the worst possible time.
They're coming off a bad home loss to Michigan State, blowing a 16-point advantage for their fifth loss in the nine games (3-6 ATS).
Throwing salt in that wound is a season-ending wrist injury to budding forward Morez Johnson Jr., who had played his way into the starting lineup with efficient interior scoring and rebounding.
Among the issues swirling around Brad Underwood’s program tonight is a potential look-ahead spot, with the No. 3 Duke Blue Devils and a non-conference showcase at Madison Square Garden waiting this weekend.
The Wisconsin Badgers are playing their best basketball of the season, looking far stronger than their 86-80 loss at Illinois back in December. They’ve strung together four straight victories — three by double digits — and covered the spread each time.
Wisconsin, which is always a tough team inside the Kohl Center, has tightened up on defense since that last run-in with the Fighting Illini and allows just over 66 points on its own floor, holding visitors to an effective field goal rate of just 46.4%.
Illinois isn’t a great outside shooting side and relies on getting to the bucket for high-percentage looks. Wisconsin’s defense is a Top 50 unit according to KenPom and does a solid job limiting opponents’ points in the paint, giving up just 27.1 PITP against (43rd).
The biggest battle for the Badgers is keeping Illinois off the offensive glass. The Illini snatched 15 offensive rebounds in that first meeting, which led to easy putbacks and second-chance opportunities.
Wisconsin has worked on rebounding since December and has put bodies on would-be crashers in recent games. The Badgers have allowed only 7.3 offensive rebounds per outing over their last three contests, including letting just three slip away in the win over Purdue this weekend.
Game projections sit very close to the current spread of Wisconsin -4, with some as high as a 6-point Badgers win. Given Illinois’ issues and situational spot, I’ll side with the home team giving the points.
Illinois vs Wisconsin same-game parlay (SGP)
Wisconsin -3.5
John Tonje 15+ Points
Illinois team total Under 79.5
The Badgers and Illini have contrasting momentum and Wisconsin is in a much better state than when it lost to Illinois back in December.
Tonje’s projections are as high as 20-plus points. He’s scored 15 or more points in seven straight outings.
Illinois has constantly been juggling the rotation due to injuries and that’s led to offensive inconsistency over the past nine games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Illinois vs Wisconsin odds
Illinois vs Wisconsin live odds
Illinois vs Wisconsin opening odds
- Spread: Illinois +3.5 (-110) | Wisconsin -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Illinois +140 | Wisconsin -165
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Illinois vs Wisconsin betting trend to know
Wisconsin has covered the spread in 21 of its last 35 games (+5.65 Units/15% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Wisconsin.
How to watch Illinois vs Wisconsin
| Location | Kohl Center, Madison, WI |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-18-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Illinois vs Wisconsin key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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