Indiana vs Iowa Big Ten Tournament Picks and Predictions: Trayce Amounts in Close Contest

The Hoosiers have taken the Big Ten Tournament by storm with their pesky defense, but run into an elite attack in the Hawkeyes. Our Indiana vs Iowa picks see them keeping things close again in a low-scoring game — read to find out why!

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Mar 12, 2022 • 08:12 ET • 4 min read
Trayce Jackson-Davis Indiana Hoosiers Big Ten Tournament
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Indiana Hoosiers have upset the apple cart in the Big Ten tournament and continue their postseason push against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the semifinals Saturday afternoon.

The Hoosiers took down Michigan in Round 2 and stunned No. 1 seed Illinois in the quarters, playing a disruptive brand of defense that has turned games into all-out grinds. The Hawkeyes, on the other hand, have been the most impressive offense in the tournament, scoring nearly 200 points in two games. That sets up a fun contrast in styles for this semifinal showdown.

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Iowa on March 11.

Indiana vs Iowa odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Iowa opened as big as a 6.5-point favorite but is now sitting -6 across most books. The total hit the board at 144.5 and has slimmed to 144 points as of Saturday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Indiana vs Iowa predictions

Predictions made on 3/12/2022 at 7:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Indiana vs Iowa game info

Location: Gainbridge, Indianapolis, IN
Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

Indiana vs Iowa betting preview

Injuries

Indiana: None.
Iowa: None.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 10-4 in Hoosiers' last 14 games as underdogs. Find more NCAA betting trends for Indiana vs. Iowa.

Indiana vs Iowa picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Since a stunning second-half comeback against Michigan in their tournament opener, the Hoosiers have been imposing their brand of “ugly” basketball on their tournament foes. 

Indiana, which ranks out as the best defense in terms of adjusted efficiency in the Big Ten, made the top-seeded Illini look disjointed on offense and outclassed, especially down the stretch of Friday’s quarterfinal contest in which it seemed like neither side wanted to really win the game. 

Illinois finished shooting just 36% from the field and very much looked like a team that has been out of action for a while, earning a two-round bye but staying stagnant since March 6. Iowa, on the other hand, is all warmed up. 

The Hawkeyes got to dip their toes in the Big Ten tournament pool with a one-sided win over Northwestern in Round 2 and then wore down a very sound Rutgers defense on Friday. Iowa shot 49% from the floor while cashing in 25 of 27 free throws in a physical and intense matchup that featured six total technical fouls. 

Fran McCaffrey’s team is humming and isn’t overly dependent on a certain facet of the offense for points. Iowa can get to the rim, score in the post, hit open 3-pointers, and generate points at the foul line. They’ll likely have to do all of that to crack this IU defense, which patrols the perimeter and has a rim protector in Trayce Jackson-Davis in the paint. 

Indiana has been able to slow down some of the top offensive attacks in the Big Ten in recent weeks, checking the likes of Purdue (69 points), Illinois (63) and Ohio State (63 in regulation) – all coming away from home.

The Hoosiers’ postseason run may come to an end Saturday, but they’ll “ugly” up this game enough to stay within this spread. Some books are dealing IU +6.5, so make sure you get that half-point hook to make this is a three-possession gap for the Hawkeyes.

Prediction: Indiana +6.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

We’ve praised the Indiana defense, but give some credit to the Hawkeyes. Iowa tightened the bolts on its defense in the second half of Big Ten play and entered the postseason playing some of its finest defensive basketball of the season, limiting its final six regular-season foes to just 67.7 points per game, which translated into a 1-5 Over/Under count.

The Hawkeyes are a sound rebounding team that can body with the Hoosiers inside and does a great job generating turnovers as well, forcing almost 14 per game. If Iowa’s tempo (second fastest in the Big Ten) can speed Indiana up, the Hoosiers could fall into those mistakes.

As for Indiana, it’ll try to take away the Hawkeyes’ looks from beyond the arc and force the fighting inside the key. Iowa was an incredible 19-for-29 from outside in the blowout win over Northwestern but couldn’t find that form versus Rutgers, making only 7 of 22 3-point attempts. 

Indiana will play tight perimeter defense, force the Iowa guards to put the ball on the ground and funnel them into the interior help. The Hawkeyes are great in transition and like to initiate the offense early into the shot clock but struggled to generate opportunities in the halfcourt set, ranked out at 113th in assists per field goal made despite ranking 18th in average assists per contest.

Prediction: Under 144 (-110)

Best bet

We mentioned Indiana’s recent run-ins with the Big Ten’s other offensive juggernauts. In matchups with Purdue (1st in offensive efficiency), Ohio State (3rd) and Illinois (5th), the Hoosiers limited each of those foes to 33 first-half points.

If Indiana has any legs left – a serious question for a team playing their third game in three days – they’ll show up in the first 20 minutes. 

Outside of that disaster of a first half versus Michigan in Round 2 (which IU prompting mopped up), the Hoosiers have been able to set the tone on defenses early on. They allowed an average of just 29.2 1H points per game and can’t let Iowa run away in the opening 20 minutes.

Pick: Iowa 1H team total Under 35.5 points (-120)

College basketball parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Indiana vs. Iowa picks, you could win $56.82 on a $10 bet?

Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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