Thursday sees the Indiana Hoosiers hoping to carry a little home-court edge into the Big Ten tournament, which takes place at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
The Hoosiers open tournament play against the Oregon Ducks, getting a handful of points from oddsmakers on Thursday afternoon. The Ducks are among the hottest teams in the nation, but IU has played its best basketball down the stretch as well.
My Indiana vs. Oregon predictions believe the Ducks’ heat is a bit overrated, and I’m grabbing the points with the underdog in my best college basketball predictions for March 13.
Who will win Indiana vs Oregon?
Game projections call for a very close battle in Round 2 of the Big Ten tournament. That suits Indiana just fine, as the Hoosiers have found themselves in plenty of tight contests down the home stretch.
I like Indiana to advance.
Indiana vs Oregon prediction
My best bet: Indiana +2.5 (-110 at bet365)
Oregon is getting a lot of love for its finish to the regular season. The Ducks collected seven straight victories, including a 73-64 home win over Indiana on March 4.
That game was a nail-biter down to the closing minute, but the Ducks finished on a weird 10-0 run in the last 65 seconds, making the 73-64 final score look a little wider than it was. The Hoosiers checked the Ducks to 39% shooting on their own floor, but a massive foul shot discrepancy made the difference (IU shot 7 FTA to Oregon’s 21 FTA).
While Indiana didn’t rattle off seven straight wins, it did surge in the home stretch with a solid 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS finish in the final five games of the regular season. That was enough to push IU out of the opening round and earn an extra day off in the Big Ten tournament. It also has Indiana on the NCAA Tournament bubble, currently needing some resume padding to ensure a spot in the Field of 68.
The Hoosiers boasted the fourth-best net rating in that final five-game span (+10.1), and while four of those five contests did come inside Assembly Hall, IU should have a friendly crowd on their side on Thursday afternoon, with Bloomington only an hour away from Indianapolis.
Indiana is one of the biggest teams in the Big Ten and plays a physical brand of basketball, looking to attack the interior. The Hoosiers scored 32 points in the paint against the Ducks in their first meeting – yet only went to the foul line seven times. Expect the whistles to be much more balanced in Indianapolis.
Oregon may be peaking too soon, as that scare against a terrible Washington squad could be the first crack in the foundation. The Ducks needed overtime to escape with a road win over the Huskies, who also picked up a bunch of points in the key.
If Indiana can score easy looks around the hoop, it will slow this game down and test a Ducks offense that can disappear for minutes at a time. While Oregon put up big scores against some of the Big Ten’s softest defenses (Iowa, USC, Rutgers), it isn’t an explosive attack with a breakneck pace or perimeter game to pull away from opponents.
Game models call for another very close finish, with projections leaning towards Oregon with slim margins of one, two, and 2.5 points. We're also seeing market movement toward the Hoosiers, with the vig on Indians +2.5 jumping up from -110 to -115, indicating a potential adjustment.
I believe that recent result (which was closer than the final score indicates), the appeal of the Ducks’ streak, and a de facto home court for IU all skew this spread, and I like the Hoosiers to advance to the quarterfinals as slight dogs.
Indiana vs Oregon same-game parlay (SGP)
Indiana +2.5
Oumar Ballo 10+ points
Oumar Ballo 10+ rebounds
The Hoosiers get a taste of home cooking in Gainbridge and will get some friendly calls, unlike their last game with Oregon.
Oumar Ballo is a beast inside and is projected for double digits after averaging more than 13 points this season.
Ballo also attacks the glass. He had 12 rebounds against the Ducks last time, and game models call for 10+ boards on Thursday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Indiana vs Oregon odds
Indiana vs Oregon live odds
Indiana vs Oregon opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +2.5 (-110) | Oregon -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana +120 | Oregon -140
- Over/Under: Over 143 (-110) | Under 143 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Indiana vs Oregon betting trend to know
Indiana has won outright on the moneyline in 20 of its last 33 games (+14.55 Units/6% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Oregon.
How to watch Indiana vs Oregon
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | BTN |
Indiana vs Oregon key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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