When the hottest team in the Big 12 gets five days off, is it assured to cool off? Or will the BYU Cougars benefit from those few days of recovery after surging into the Top 4 of the Big 12? The Cougars’ eight-game winning streak includes a road upset of the Iowa State Cyclones, and looking for another within two weeks may be bold.
Yet my Iowa State vs. BYU predictions and college basketball picks call for just such an upset, in part because the Cyclones’ rotation may be hampered in their second game of the Big 12 Tournament. Tip comes at 12:30 ET from T-Mobile Center in Kansas City on Thursday, March 13.
Who will win Iowa State vs BYU?
BYU has not lost in a month. Filter stats to just the last month — an admittedly biased selection sample given the first sentence of this paragraph — and the Cougars rank as the No. 2 team in the country in barttorvik.com’s analytics, behind only Duke. Most specifically, BYU’s offense has jumped up to No. 3 at 134.0 points per 100 possessions, once adjusting for opponents. Before February 13, it ranked a respectable No. 16, but nearly 14 points worse per 100 possessions.
With Iowa State playing on a second straight day with a tip in the a.m. locally, any lapse in defense will be costly. It is not usually a defense that lapses, but the Cyclones may also be shorthanded, and that will only further these chances.
Stick with the eight-game winning streak, even with BYU as an underdog at +145 on the moneyline at bet365.
Iowa State vs BYU prediction
My best bet: BYU moneyline (+145 at bet365)
Good luck finding reliable injury reports or updates during conference tournaments. As of Thursday morning, there is no clarity on the availability of either Keshon Gilbert or Tamin Lipsey for the Iowa State Cyclones. But the two veteran point guards both left yesterday’s win against Cincinnati with groin worries.
Officially, they are “game-time decisions” today. If either or both is limited, life becomes much more difficult for Iowa State.
Per Ken Pomeroy, the Cyclones’ Top-10 most frequent lineups in March have all included Lipsey, playing at least 97% of Iowa State’s minutes in the last five games. That is in part because Gilbert has missed half those games.
Gilbert’s recent impact may seem less important, but after missing yesterday’s entire second half, the thought should become: If Gilbert can’t go, could the added stress further inhibit Lipsey? These two are very much tied together.
They have both been in T.J. Otzelberger’s offense for three seasons, that experience most showing up in their efficient shooting but also in respectable assist rates.
Lipsey played 41 minutes in a double-overtime home loss to the BYU Cougars on March 4, to give a further idea of how crucial he is to the Cyclones’ offense. Gilbert played 43 minutes that night, then missing the next game and managing only 11 minutes yesterday.
That win may have been the most dramatic of the Cougars’ surge, but it was the third upset of those eight games. Betting against BYU right now is a questionable choice. Betting on Iowa State with both its veteran floor generals limited would be just as questionable of a choice.
Iowa State vs BYU same-game parlay (SGP)
BYU moneyline
BYU team total Over 71.5
Under 146.5
As of Thursday morning, bet365 is still not offering any player props on this game, likely due to injury uncertainty. That limits the options when building any same-game parlay, but this version still features an exaggerated payout thanks to the counterintuitive nature of combining a team total Over with a full-game Under.
The premise is simple: Iowa State’s offense should struggle if either Lipsey or Gilbert is held back, and every missed bucket will create a bettered chance for the Cougars to attack the Cyclones’ defense before it is set.
That combination should help BYU score in part because Iowa State is struggling to score.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa State vs BYU odds
Iowa State vs BYU live odds
Iowa State vs BYU opening odds
- Spread: Iowa State -2.5 | BYU +2.5
- Moneyline: Iowa State -140 | BYU +120
- Over/Under: Over 146 | Under 146
Odds courtesy of bet365
Iowa State vs BYU betting trend to know
BYU did not just win eight straight to end the regular season. It also went 7-1 against the spread, the sole exception being an 11-point win when favored by 11.5 points. The Cougars exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 9.7 points in the last month. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. BYU.
How to watch Iowa State vs BYU
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Iowa State vs BYU key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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