The Phil Knight Invitational concludes Sunday night in what might be a surprising matchup for some viewers.
Iowa State (5-0) has impressed thus far, beating Villanova 81-79 in the first game before notching a shocking 70-65 win over North Carolina to advance to the finals.
The going doesn't get much easier to close things out, as UConn (7-0) awaits with an undefeated record after blowing out both Oregon and Alabama to open the tournament.
Can Iowa State pull off another surprise or will UConn prove too strong? Read our college basketball picks and predictions below to find out.
Iowa State vs UConn best odds
Iowa State vs UConn picks and predictions
UConn has been one of the most impressive teams in the country to begin the season. After notching five wins by at least 20 points against overmatched competition, Dan Hurley’s squad has kept things goings in the Phil Knight Invitational with an 83-59 win over Oregon and an 82-67 dispatching of Alabama.
The Huskies are up to No. 8 in KemPom’s ratings, ranking No. 14 offensively and No. 10 defensively. They’re a solid team on both ends of the court and will not be an easy out for any opponent this season, as their hot start is not something to overlook given the margin of victories in each and every contest.
I expect that success to continue in Sunday’s final at the Chiles Center in Portland, Oregon. The Huskies are 6-0-1 against the spread this season and will face a tough test in an Iowa State squad that is 4-1 ATS, but I believe Hurley’s team is the superior side and that will be evident in Sunday’s matchup.
Big man Adama Sanogo is among the best players in the nation. He’s been a menace this season, averaging 20.6 points and 7.1 rebounds while chipping in a steal (1.0) and a block (0.9) per game. The rest of the team isn’t chock-full of household names yet, but Jordan Hawkins (13.0), Tristen Newton (12.6), and Alex Karaban (10.4) are all averaging double figures.
Iowa State is clearly a program that deserves more respect than it gets after last year’s surprising Sweet 16 appearance and then a hot start to begin 2022-23 including a win over North Carolina.
Still, T.J. Otzelberger’s squad is outgunned in this matchup considering the Cyclones rank just No. 43 overall in KenPom. They check in at No. 82 in offensive efficiency and struggle from beyond the arc ranking 287th in 3-point percentage (30.4%).
Those numbers won’t cut it against a Huskies team that looks elite on both ends of the court this season. I'm laying the points with UConn here.
My best bet: UConn -5.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
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Iowa State vs UConn spread analysis
Both teams have been terrific against the spread this season, so something will have to give. Iowa State is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, while UConn is 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS. College basketball odds seem to think that Iowa State is deserving of respect in this spot, as the line went from +6.5 at open to +5.5 at current on the Cyclones’ side.
I don’t see this team having a lot of firepower this season. St. Bonaventure transfer Jaren Holmes is the star of the show, averaging 17.8 points per game, but he's certainly not a beacon of efficiency, needing 15.6 shot attempts per game to reach that number on 42.3% shooting.
Three more players (Caleb Grill, Osun Osunniyi, Gabe Kalschuer) average double figures, although only the big man Osunniyi is shooting over 42% from the field.
UConn has been one of the most impressive teams in the country to start the year, and the performances against Oregon and Alabama did not look fluky. Sanogo will be the best player on the floor and there are plenty of shooters surrounding him as the Huskies rank 35th in 3-point percentage (38.5%) and have six different players averaging at least one 3-pointer per game.
They have one of the best players in the country and have been outstanding on both ends of the court. I’ll ride with them until given a reason otherwise.
Iowa State vs UConn Over/Under analysis
Iowa State’s inefficiencies on offense and elite defensive play have resulted in a 4-1 mark to the Under this season. The opener against Villanova raced over the 125.5 total in an 81-79 overtime game and the 70-65 finish against North Carolina fell five points shy of the 140-point total.
UConn is another story, starting a profitable 5-2 to the Over. Both games in Portland have found the Over, albeit narrowly — the Oregon game finished five points above the 137-point total and the Alabama game went just one point Over the 148-point total.
Oddsmakers have set this total at 135. That seems like a fair number, as an offensive explosion from the Cyclones is unlikely and their propensity to play great defense means that UConn might be held in check more than they have thus far in the season.
I’d lean toward the Under in this spot considering it’s a tournament final and both teams play solid defense. UConn ranks 31st in field-goal percentage allowed (42.1%) and checks in at No. 10 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency and having a stalwart like Sanogo down low certainly helps.
Iowa State thrives on defending the 3-point line, ranking 39th in 3-point percentage allowed (27%). That should help the Cyclones in this spot against a UConn team that has been lights out from deep to start the year.
Iowa State vs UConn betting trend to know
UConn is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win. Find more College basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. UConn.
Iowa State vs UConn game info
| Location: | Moda Center, Portland, OR |
| Date: | Sunday, November 27, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
