Iowa vs Ohio State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Expect Another High-Octane Affair

The Ohio State Buckeyes’ dreams of an NCAA tournament berth survived the opening round of the Big Ten tourney.

That pipe dream now has to overcome one of the best offenses in the country in the Iowa Hawkeyes. Given Ohio State is not exactly known for its defense, either, this afternoon contest should be a high-scoring delight.

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Ohio State vs. Iowa on March 9, with tip set for 2:30 p.m. ET.

Iowa vs Ohio State best odds

Iowa vs Ohio State picks and predictions

The early games in these conference tournaments present a chance to utilize a unique angle in college basketball handicapping, one that may also apply a week from today, so take note. How does a team fare when rested?

The college basketball season becomes a long stretch of games every three or four days, over and over again. Conference play, in particular, becomes a bit of a grind. By no means is it like the NBA’s 3+ games per week grind, but consider how the Iowa Hawkeyes started January: five games in the first 15 days. Then the Hawkeyes took a brief break before rattling off four more games in 11 days.

Those brief breaks sometimes create a trend. Be it coaching or just rest, some teams respond to that pause. Iowa’s defense is not among them.

On any day, the Hawkeyes’ offense should be feared. In conference play, Iowa averaged 78.4 points, No. 1 in the Big Ten. And on any day, the Hawkeyes’ defense is not its calling card. KenPom considers it the No. 13 defense in the Big Ten, ahead of only the worst team in the conference, Minnesota, no matter what first-round upset the Gophers pulled on Wednesday.

Iowa gave up 76.8 points per conference game this season. Split that into two categories, though, and a trend emerges that should worry the Hawkeyes today.

When Iowa played on fewer than four days' rest, it gave up 74.2 points per game in 12 games. When it played on four or more days rest in conference play, it gave up 80.8 points per game in eight games.

What goes wrong? Well, for a defense that already struggles, just about everything. Consider the Hawkeyes’ last outing, an 81-77 home loss to Nebraska. Yes, the same Nebraska that laid down to Minnesota yesterday.

The Cornhuskers shot 53.8% from deep. That should obviously be unsustainable, but it was not the first time an opponent hit more than half their threes against Iowa when the Hawkeyes were well-rested. In fact, it was the fourth time in eight such games, part of why Big Ten foes shot 40.% from deep against the Hawkeyes.

As bad as that conference mark of 40.1% allowed was, those rested moments were often that much worse.

Days like today, when Iowa is well-rested, are when its bad defense is at its absolute worst. Team totals are not yet available as of this typing, but Ohio State’s should open at about 75.5, based on the game total of 153.5.

When the Hawkeyes had at least four days of rest, they gave up 79 or more points six out of eight times, with one of the exceptions being a mark of 75.

Betting the game total will also lean on Iowa’s offense, as safe a choice as doubting Fran McCaffery’s defense.

My best bet: Over 153.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Iowa vs Ohio State spread analysis

These two split their season series, each winning by a lopsided margin at home. This 2.5-point spread runs counter to those decisive victories, but it speaks to Ohio State’s surge of late.

It took the Buckeyes a couple of games to navigate life after forward Zed Key’s season-ending injury, not that life was going swimmingly with Key, but they have now covered the spread in four straight games.

Their most common lineup nowadays features four freshmen and senior forward Justice Sueing. The group can shoot and distinctly does so, hence this winning run and some wonder if Ohio State fans should have made weekend hotel reservations in Chicago.

The Buckeyes have shot 37.9% from deep in their last four games and 44.7% in their last two, notable upticks from a Big Ten-play average of 35%.

That should especially stand out today, given two of those aforementioned games in which a rested Iowa gave up 50% or better from deep in Big Ten competition came against Ohio State.

Iowa vs Ohio State Over/Under analysis

That may be the emphasis here, that the Buckeyes already knew how to exploit the Hawkeyes. Neither offensive explosion relied on Key, who scored just 15 points total in two games against Iowa. Rather, they were sharpshooting displays.

Ohio State shot 50% from deep at home in a 93-77 win in mid-January, led by freshman forward Brice Sensabaugh’s 4-for-5 from three on his way to 27 points. Then the Buckeyes fell 92-75 at Iowa in mid-February, despite going 8-for-15 from range. Sensabaugh went 2-for-4 from deep on his way to 16 points.

Notice those final scores. 93-77 and 92-75. Today’s 153.5 may not stand a chance.

Iowa vs Ohio State betting trend to know

Iowa went 10-10 ATS in conference play, but is only 3-6 ATS since Feb. 4. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Ohio State.

Iowa vs Ohio State game info

Iowa vs Ohio State key injuries

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