Iowa vs Purdue Odds, Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Foes Attack Weaknesses

The number one team in the country will take the court on Thursday night when Iowa travels to Indiana to face Purdue.

Even after a loss, the Boilermakers have held the number one spot in the polls. They'll be looking to wipe that taste of defeat out of their mouths here. 

Iowa has won three straight games and will be looking to improve its March seed as we head into the home stretch. 

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Iowa vs. Purdue. 

Iowa vs Purdue best odds

Iowa vs Purdue picks and predictions

The book on scoring against Purdue has been out since Zach Edey was in a Boilermaker uniform. 

That book? Middle-ball screens, get him moving his feet literally and attack the body if that fails. Indiana was just the latest team to attack Purdue's issues, with Trace Jackson-Davis getting into good positions around the rim and dropping 25 points. 

I'm targeting the Over here because neither of these teams can defend the other.

Let's start with the Purdue side. 

Iowa isn't a good defensive team and struggles in transition, allowing 1.1 points per possession. Lost in the Edey madness is that Purdue is effective when it gets out in transition. It led some of its most significant scoring runs this season. Expect that to be a focal point of attack for the Boilermakers today, as the Hawkeyes will have no objection to running. 

Now, couple that with Edey's usual impact, and you have a good recipe for an Over. Iowa has decent post-defense numbers, but it has struggled against the premier big men in the Big Ten, such as Trace Jackson-Davis, Hunter Dickinson, and Clifford Omoruyi. 

On the other side of the ball, I've already noted Purdue's issues with general lateral quickness. Whether it be Kris Murray or Tony Perkins, both are well-poised to attack those issues regularly. Purdue's overall ball screen defense – beyond just Edey – has been pretty bad to the eyes over the past few games. Iowa has two players in, Perkins and Murray, scoring over a point per possession on ball screens and shooting over 50%. Expect them to achieve attacking that at a high enough clip to get this one going Over.

These teams both pit a natural strength on the other, and I'm not counting on either to stop the other. Ride a high-scoring affair. 

My best bet: Over 149 (-110 at DraftKings)

Iowa vs Purdue spread analysis

I'll dabble on the Iowa moneyline if I see a price get north of +300. There are a few reasons why the Hawkeyes are a live dog here.

Iowa's guards, Tony Perkins and Ahron Ulis, are superior to what Purdue can offer. Additionally, Iowa will have a dynamic scorer in Kris Murray, who has already dropped 30 on a team with a talented big man this season in Indiana. 

Finally, of course, Zach Edey can be transcendent and make your analysis worthless, and he's capable of that today. However, that number would have too much value for me to pass up. 

Iowa vs Purdue Over/Under analysis

The Over is my strongest bet by a pretty healthy margin. If you want to look at a player prop, such as Kris Murray Over 17.5 points available at -110 on DraftKings, I'm not opposed to that either. Iowa will score on a boatload of teams at a high clip, and I'm not trusting Purdue to be any different. 

These two teams have been profitable for Over bettors as well. Purdue's games have gone Over in its last four. Additionally, Iowa games have gone Over at a clip of 7-1 after a straight–up win. I won't be bucking either of these trends, particularly in a matchup with the recipe to be played quickly. 

Iowa vs Purdue betting trend to know

The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Purdue.

Iowa vs Purdue game info

Iowa vs Purdue key injuries

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