Vikings vs Rams Picks: 3 Experts Share Their Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

Matthew Stafford Over 235.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

By Jason Logan

Matthew Stafford has been in survival mode for the majority of L.A.’s games this season. 

With injuries to his receiving corps and offensive line, the 36-year-old has taken plenty of punishment while watching his production dwindle. However, Stafford is getting some of those bodies back in Week 8, including WR Cooper Kupp.

Kupp is expected to return to the lineup for the first time since suffering an injury in Week 2 and could be joined by offensive lineman Joe Noteboom, who arrives just in time to face a vaunted Minnesota Vikings pass rush.

Minnesota’s blitz-happy schemes are cooking up the highest pressure rate in the NFL, but this pass defense has shown cracks over the past three outings, giving up yardage totals of 389, 244, and 280 — third-most in the league over the past three games.

Considering those returnees on offense, Minnesota’s dominant run defense (No. 1 in EPA allowed per handoff), and a game-script that has Los Angeles playing from behind, Stafford player projections are positive.

Stafford’s passing yard total for Thursday Night Football is set at 235.5 Over/Under — a bar he’s surpassed only twice all year. Forecasts all come in above that current Over/Under prop and range from 238 to 262 yards passing from the Rams quarterback, with my number at 246 yards through the air.

Looking for more in-depth analysis? Check out Jason's Vikings vs. Rams predictions.

Aaron Jones Over 67.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

By Rohit Ponnaiya

The Rams are 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (151.7) and they rank 28th in both defensive rush EPA and defensive rush success rate.

That run defense could be even worse this week with starting linebacker Troy Reeder sidelined by an injury and standout rookie Braden Fiske (seventh among all interior DL in run-stop win rate) listed as questionable.

Vikings running back Aaron Jones was limited in practice with a hamstring injury but has no injury designation and played through the same issue last week, rushing for 93 yards on 14 carries against Detroit’s strong run defense. Jones has now rushed for more than 90 yards in four of six games this year and I expect him to gash L.A. on the ground.

Check out Rohit's Vikings vs. Rams TNF prop bets column ahead of kickoff for even more plays. 

Matthew Stafford Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-152 at FanDuel)

By Neil Parker

No team allows more pass attempts (42.5) or completions (26.8) per game than the Vikings, and I expect Stafford to have to attack through the air to keep pace with a Minny offense averaging 28.0 points per game.

Minnesota has also been excellent against the run, with the lowest EPA per rush allowed and third-highest run defense grade per PFF. It sets up the Rams offense to be looking at a lot of second- and third-and-long situations against the blitz-heavy Vikings. 

Interestingly, while the Vikes have a league-high 42.5% blitz rate and 31.0% pressure rate, Minny ranks 27th in pass rush grade per PFF. 

The Vikes have surrendered a healthy 285.3 passing yards per game, in addition to the already noted league-high marks in attempts and completions per game. Additionally, I see multiple paths to Stafford clearing this 235.5 passing-yard benchmark.

With that said, although I expect Stafford to air it out early and often, I'm skeptical he'll have more than one TD connection tonight. The 36-year-old field general only has four touchdown passes through six games, which makes the Under a far shrewder bet.

Get ready for game time by checking out Neil's Vikings vs. Rams same-game parlay pick.