All good things must come to an end.
The good thing I'm referring to is "winning by betting on NFL player props," as after an 8-2 stretch, reality hit like a sack of bricks with a 1-4 Week 7.
However, this is no time to dwell on the past; we need to learn from our mistakes — and what I've learned is:
- Don't bet on receivers with a yardage total above 90.
- Don't bet on running backs on bad offenses returning from a gruesome leg injury.
- Don't bet on the Tennessee Titans.
Simple rules, really, and as I kick off my NFL picks for Week 8, I'm adhering to those and going back to a tried-and-true situation — a backup RB on Thursday Night Football.
Latest NFL prop picks
Chandler o19.5 rush yards
(-110 at bet365)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 8
Ty Chandler Over 19.5 rushing yards
The Minnesota Vikings follow a tough loss to Detroit on Sunday by going on the road to face the Los Angeles Rams on TNF.
With quarterback Sam Darnold starting to cool off from his hot early-season start, and with this being a short week, I'd expect the Vikings to lean on the running game, especially facing a weak Rams run defense.
Naturally, you'd assume that this is a play on RB1 Aaron Jones, but think again — I'm looking at backup Ty Chandler's odds to go Over a paltry rushing total of 19.5 yards.
Chandler's workload has fluctuated a bit this season, logging two games with double-digit carries, four with 7+ runs, and two with three or fewer. However, with the 29-year-old Jones only getting one full practice this week due to a hamstring ailment — and not being the most durable back anyway — I expect a more balanced workload after Jones played 72% of the snaps (his second-highest number of the year) just four days ago.
That puts Chandler in a prime spot to put in work against a Rams defense that has allowed the fifth-most yards per game to RBs and has allowed at least 122 rushing yards overall in all six of its contests.
Chandler has averaged 35.5 yards per game in the four weeks he received at least seven rush attempts, and industry projections average about 26 yards for him tonight, ranging as high as 30 yards.
We've also seen backup RBs consistently get work for visiting teams on TNF so far this season: Excluding Week 1 (season opener) and Week 6 (an RB injury skews the data), we've seen the road team's RB2 average 6.2 carries and 31.2 yards in those games, with 29+ yards in four of those five contests.
Pick made on 10-24
NFL Week 8 prop betting card
- Ty Chandler Over 19.5 rushing yards (-110)
Last week: 1-4, -3.17 units
Season: 18-17, -0.46 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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