The weather for Week 8 of the NFL season predicts plenty of perfect autumn days for those outdoor venues hosting games. Well, except for Seattle.
The outlook for Lumen Field is frightful and we’re already seeing the NFL odds influenced by those elements.
Here’s a look at the weather for the Bills at Seahawks, as well as the other Week 8 weather of note and how you should handicap those forecasts.
Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks weather
This non-conference contest will see some classic Pacific Northwest weather.
Forecasts call for a 70% chance of rain, with showers getting a little lighter once this 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff gets underway. Rain is expected to continue throughout with game-time temperatures in the low 50s.
On top of the wet stuff, winds will blow at sustained speeds of 13 mph with some models calling for gusts up to 32 mph blowing SSW from corner to corner at Lumen Field.
This potential weather has driven the Over/Under down, dropping from an opener of 48 to 47 points. While that’s only one point on the total, it’s a significant move to the key O/U number of 47 — the fourth most common collective score in the NFL.
Wetness is nothing new to Seattle and the brand-new FieldTurf CORE surface, installed in March, is among the best in the world at drainage. Slick footballs, however, can be tricky, especially when both passing offenses ranked Top 8 in drop percentage (Bills 6.6%, Seahawks 5.9%).
Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith has seen his targets drop 16 balls in 2024 (tied for second most) and with DK Metcalf listed as questionable, Smith could find himself throwing to less-trustworthy options.
If the gusts do get stronger, deeper passes and kicking could also be impacted. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen sits ninth in total air yards and Smith sits second in that stat, making deeper strikes difficult if breezes push those passes around.
Seahawks kicker Jason Myers is 11 for 14 on field goal attempts (79%), including a 3-for-5 count on FGAs of 50-plus yards. Buffalo kicker Tyler Bass has very similar success, with an 11-for-13 record on FGAs, including a 3-for-6 record on 40-plus kicks, and has missed two of his 24 PATs.
Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins weather
Gone is the heat and humidity of Florida’s hurricane season. But there’s still the potential for wind in Miami Gardens this Sunday.
The forecast for Hard Rock Stadium varies, with some models calling for sustained winds of 14 mph and gusts getting up to 29 mph, blowing ENE from corner to corner.
Kicking is the first thought when it comes to stronger winds. The Arizona Cardinals have had to overcome an injury to veteran leg Matt Prater, replacing him with Chad Ryland the past three games. He’s 6 for 7 on FGAs and a perfect 4 for 4 on PATs.
Miami Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders hasn’t been a reliable option in the best of conditions. He’s whiffed on 10 of his 14 FGAs including a big ole DOINK! on a possible game-tying 54-yarder at Indianapolis last Sunday.
As for the wind’s influence on the passing games, the return of QB Tua Tagovailoa will have the Fins pushing the ball deeper down the field than in past weeks. Miami averaged just 5.7 yards per attempt the past three games compared to 7.8 with Tua under center but is still very dependent on yards after the catch.
The Cardinals are middle of the road in terms of air yards and sit near the bottom in YAC. Arizona QB Kyler Murray has posted 15 passing plays of 20 or more yards, which is the seventh fewest but still ahead of the Dolphins, who only have 11 “big plays” to their resume.
This Over/Under total opened 46.5 and jumped to 47.5 points with Tagovailoa coming back, before dropping to 46 O/U.
New York Jets at New England Patriots weather
There could be gusts around 20 mph in Gillette Stadium this Sunday.
Sustained winds will blow around 11 mph, moving WNW from corner to corner. Some forecasts call for gusts as high as 23 mph, which are strong but not overly disruptive in bursts.
Neither sides’ field goal kicking is especially sharp. New England Patriots’ kicker Joey Slye is 10 for 12 on FGAs and New York Jets’ veteran Greg Zuerlein is just 8 for 13, including 1 for 4 on FGAs of 40-plus yards.
New England rookie QB Drake Maye is pushing the ball deeper than former starter Jacoby Brissett (5.1 completed air yards per attempt vs. 4.1) while New York’s Aaron Rodgers has seen a spike in his average depth of target since playcalling was given to Todd Downing two weeks ago.
This total sits at 41.5 points, which is where most shops opened the Over/Under on Sunday night.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers weather
Sunday Night Football will get a beautiful evening by the Bay in Week 8, outside of some pesky breezes picking up at times.
Sustained winds of 11 mph and gusts flirting with 20 mph are on deck for this primetime game, blowing NW from end to end at Levi’s Stadium.
Given the injuries and ailments to the receiving corps, the San Francisco 49ers could go ground-heavy and keep passing plays conservative in Week 8. Brock Purdy was among the leaders in intender air yards, but that could shorten up on SNF.
The Dallas Cowboys’ passing attack relies on Dak Prescott hitting CeeDee Lamb for bigger gains. Prescott is Top 10 in both intended and completed air yards per attempt. That said, I don’t think the wind will have that much influence on throws past the sticks.
Kicking could get weird — with or without winds — on Sunday night.
San Francisco’s rash of injuries has touched all three aspects of the team, including kicking. The Niners are down to Anders Carlson with Jake Moody out of action. Carlson, who was 27 for 33 on FGAs with Green Bay last season, went 2 for 2 on FGAs against Kansas City last week but did miss his only PAT.
As for the Cowboys, the reliable leg of Brandon Aubrey is expected to be available Sunday night after having to juggle jury duty this week which cost him practice time. Aubrey is regarded as the best kicker in the league but hasn’t been flawless at 17 for 19 on FGAs with both misses coming on kicks of 50-plus.
The Over/Under total for Sunday Night Football opened at 48 points and is down to 46 — an adjustment that has everything to do with the Niners’ injuries and not the potential of 20 mph gusts in Santa Clara.
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