The Maryland Terrapins head to East Lansing to face the Michigan State Spartans in Big Ten basketball action on Saturday. These schools faced off two weeks ago in College Park with MSU winning a nail-biter.
The Spartans are expected to prevail again with college basketball odds installing them as 6.5-point home favorites for the rematch with the O/U at just 129.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Maryland vs. Michigan State on February 3.
Maryland vs Michigan State best odds
Maryland vs Michigan State picks and predictions
They say that defense travels, and Maryland has one of the best in the country, ranking sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency.
In their last game, they beat Nebraska 73-51, holding a Top-50 Huskers offense to just 7-22 shooting from two-point range and forcing 17 turnovers. They're 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games although their only ATS defeat during that span came against Michigan State on January 21 when they lost 61-59.
Guard Jahmir Young leads the Terps in points (20.4) and assists (4.2) per game but their most important player is forward Julian Reese who averages 10.1 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game.
Reese is a big reason that Maryland is ninth in the country in block rate while ranking eighth in opponent two-point percentage (43.0%). That's bad news for a Michigan State offense that settles for too many field-goal attempts from midrange and takes 68.4% of its shots from inside the arc — the 52nd-highest number in the country.
That said, the Spartans also have a stingy defense and force opponents into midrange attempts (15th-highest frequency in the country) while making it tough for foes to get to the rim. They're 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and will shut down a Terps squad that ranks 285th in effective field goal percentage (47.5) with that number dipping to 44.7% on the road.
Both of these teams also play at an extremely slow pace, with Michigan State 288th in the country in adjusted tempo and Maryland outside the Top 300. The first meeting between these teams saw lengthy possessions for both sides and they combined for just 120 points despite not shooting that poorly (both sides had an identical 42 FG%). Expect another lower-scoring contest here and take the Under.
My best bet: Under 129.5 (-106 at PROLINE+)
Maryland vs Michigan State same-game parlay
Under 129.5
Maryland +6.5
The Spartans are coming off an 81-62 win against struggling Michigan but they'll find it much harder to boat race the Terrapins. Since I'm expecting another lower-possession contest between these Big Ten foes, it will be tough for MSU to cover this spread.
While the Terps don't shoot the ball well, they get to the free-throw line at the 16th-highest rate in the country and generate second chances due to their work on the glass (31st in offensive rebounding rate). Meanwhile, the Spartans sit outside the Top 150 in fouls per defensive play and rank near the bottom of the country with a defensive rebounding rate of 64.1% over the last three games.
The Terps are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and they're also 4-1 ATS in their previous five contests on the road. The Spartans have won the last five games in the head-to-head but four of those victories came by five points or fewer and I like Maryland to keep things close once again.
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Maryland vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread for this game opened with the Spartans at -6.5 with the Over/Under at 129.5. Early money came in on the Spartans and the Over, shifting the line to -7.5 and the total to 131. However, buyback on the visitors and the Under brought both back to the opening numbers as of 10 a.m. ET.
Both of these teams have identical 13-8 overall records and 5-5 records in conference play. That said, the Spartans have faced the tougher slate with their strength of schedule ranked 11th in the country per ESPN while the Terrapins are 57th.
That along with the Spartans' superior offense is a big reason why they're No. 17 in the KenPom ratings while the Terps are 53rd.
Maryland vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Despite plenty of lower totals, the Under is 22-12 in Maryland's last 34 games (+9.90 Units / 26% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Maryland vs. Michigan State.
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Maryland vs Michigan State game info
| Location: | Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, February 3, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Maryland vs Michigan State key injuries
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