Maryland vs Minnesota Odds, Picks and Predictions: One Last Gift From Gophers

As double-digit underdogs, the Minnesota Golden Gophers should be fast approaching the end of their season. An upset today would be wildly more shocking than yesterday’s, given how much better the Maryland Terrapins are than Nebraska. But Minnesota should go down swinging, a surprise in its own right.

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Minnesota vs Maryland on March 9, with tip set for 9:00 ET.

Maryland vs Minnesota best odds

Maryland vs Minnesota picks and predictions

Losing to the Gophers yesterday may have been one of the staunchest indictments of Fred Hoiberg’s Nebraska tenure. There was no excuse: Minnesota is that bad. But that was yesterday. Now the Gophers have to try to do it all over again.

All of the Minnesota pessimism heading into the Big Ten tournament should persist. Include that moment of competence, and the Gophers are still 2-4 ATS away from home in their last six, 1-5 outright in them. They still shoot 63.8% from the line in conference play and have both the least efficient offense and defense in the Big Ten.

What is odd, though — if not outright inexplicable — is that seven straight Minnesota games have gone Over their totals. Easily, too, by an average of 15.3 points per game with the closest of them clearing its total by 9.5 points.

The most likely reasoning for this seeming surge is that the Gophers’ bad defense has just given up by now. Defense requires want-to, and Wednesday aside, Minnesota seems to lack that. Conference opponents averaged 17.4 seconds per possession against the Gophers, per Ken Pomeroy, the shortest average in the Big Ten. Opportunities were there for the taking.

And when the score is still close, Minnesota produces, as well. Those seven first halves have averaged 70.4 points. Perhaps more precisely, all but two of them saw enough points scored to be more than halfway to the pregame total before the break. Three of them saw more than 56% of the pregame total scored before halftime.

The two that seemingly lagged still featured 47.2% and 47.9% of the pregame total tallied before halftime: 64 out of 135.5 and 64 out of 133.5.

To give that applicable context: Tonight’s first-half total is 46.4% of the game total: 61.5 compared to 132.5.

Every Minnesota game since mid-February has cleared that threshold, usually with ease.

Let’s not try to understand this trend. Let’s just enjoy its profits one last time before the Gophers’ season finally, mercifully, comes to an end.

My best bet: First half Over 61.5 (-110 at Caesar’s)

Maryland vs Minnesota spread analysis

Why such doubt in the Gophers’ chances to spring another upset? It’s not just the 13-point spread. It is also that within their last nine games, Maryland beat Minnesota twice by a combined 43 points. The Terps were favored by nine points on the road and by 15 points at home and, clearly, neither spread was that tenuous.

When Maryland won by 18 at home, topping that spread by only three points, it was late-game apathy that glammed up the straight-up and ATS defeat for the Gophers. They were trailing by 26 with three minutes left before rattling off a 9-1 run end to the game.

Even with three minutes of the Terrapins going through the motions to close that blowout, Minnesota could not pull off a backdoor cover.

Maryland vs Minnesota Over/Under analysis

The best bet focuses on the first-half total because Maryland generally finds its way to an Under, falling short of the total in 12 of 20 Big Ten games, with one exception a push. When this inevitably becomes a blowout, the Gophers may fold up shop and/or the Terps may crawl to the finish line.

They already played at the slowest tempo in the Big Ten. Emphasizing that in the closing minutes of a rout could be what turns a first-half outburst into a full-game Under. Avoiding that risk with a total of 132.5 feels savvy.

A bet on the Over is a bet on Minnesota keeping this competitive, and the Gophers are no longer facing Nebraska.

Maryland vs Minnesota betting trend to know

Maryland is 7-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Maryland vs. Minnesota.

Maryland vs Minnesota game info

Maryland vs Minnesota key injuries

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