As Iowa Hawkeyes senior guard Caitlin Clark prepares to make history tonight, the Lady Hawkeyes have a crucial Big Ten game with the Michigan Wolverines they must win to keep pace with the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers in the Women’s March Madness odds.
The No. 4-ranked Lady Hawkeyes have won four of their last five and play host to a Wolverines program that has won two of their previous three and would like nothing better than to spoil the Hawkeyes' Big Ten title chances with a huge upset victory.
Who will win Thursday’s Big Ten conference tilt? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for Michigan vs Iowa on Thursday, February 15.
Michigan vs Iowa best odds
| Michigan | (2) Iowa | |
|---|---|---|
| +1,000 | Moneyline | -1,800 |
| +18.5 (-110) | Spread | -18.5 (-110) |
| Over 154.5 (-110) | Total | Under 154.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on February 15, 2024.
Michigan vs Iowa picks and predictions
Iowa Hawkeyes senior guard Caitlin Clark will reach her individual goal of breaking Kelsey Plum’s all-time scoring record before a sell-out crowd on Thursday night. Still, the Lady Hawkeyes team goal of winning the Big Ten Conference is in jeopardy after their Sunday loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
The Lady Hawkeyes blew a 14-point lead to the Cornhuskers, Clark was held scoreless over the final stanza, and the rest of the high-flying Iowa offense scored just 10 points during the final 10 minutes to suffer a disappointing road loss in a tilt they should’ve won.
The 79 points Iowa scored on Sunday was their lowest output since January 2 against Michigan State. The Hawkeyes shot an uncharacteristically horrid 31% from downtown and probably deserved to lose. Tonight, they host a Michigan Wolverines program allowing the fewest points per game in the Big Ten, and I expect Iowa to bounce back in a big way tonight.
It won’t be easy because the Wolverines are a physical team that rebounds very well. They hold opponents to 31 caroms per game, but their 3-point shooting defense can be shaky at times, and that’s how Iowa will cover the +18.5 points tonight.
Iowa was a miserable 31% from beyond the arc against Nebraska, but that was an aberration. The Lady Hawkeyes average 36% from long range, and we should expect Iowa to come out fired up, get Clark’s record out of the way, and then get to the business of blowing out the Wolverines.
The Michigan scoring defense is elite, but they are up against a team of Iowa sharpshooters coming off a bad shooting night with a delirious crowd behind them, cheering their every move. Iowa has scored 84 or more points in their last four home matchups, and they won’t hold back on the offensive end nor leave anything to chance tonight after Sunday’s heartbreaker at Nebraska.
A blowout home victory over Michigan will be the cherry on top of the sundae for the Lady Hawkeyes tonight. Michigan is a tough defensive team that hits the offensive glass with aplomb, but they will be no match for Iowa on either end of the floor and Iowa is also a terrific rebounding team. We should expect the Lady Hawkeyes to spend 40 minutes exploiting the turnover-prone Wolverines and either scoring in transition or getting tremendous looks from downtown thanks to their incredible ball movement.
Iowa doesn’t always concentrate as much on the defensive end as they do on the other end of the floor, but Michigan is an inconsistent scoring team that leads with their defense and sometimes struggles to score. Iowa needs this one, and I expect the Lady Hawkeyes to come out firing from the opening tip, methodically beat Michigan on both ends of the court over the entire 40 minutes and cover the -18.5 spread.
My best bet: Iowa -18.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Caitlin Clark prop pick
Tonight’s the night, and when it’s all over, Caitlin Clark will have replaced Kelsey Plum as the greatest female scorer the D1 game has ever seen. The best part for Clark is she’ll make history before her Iowa fans, which must be exciting for her tonight.
The Iowa guard is only eight points away from Plum’s mark, and while that record is something everyone is talking about, you can bet Clark isn’t pleased about going scoreless in the fourth stanza in their Sunday loss at Nebraska.
Clark has been in a shooting slump the last few games. She’s feeling the pressure and even missed consecutive free throws in Sunday’s loss. She’s failed to clear her 32-point average in her previous two, but with the record likely out of the way and this being a must-win game, look for the eventual all-time leading scorer in women’s college basketball history to let it fly tonight and lead her team to a decisive victory after failing to do so on Sunday at Nebraska.
Tonight is an important game for Iowa. The Wolverines' 3-point defense is above average, allowing just 30% from downtown. They aren’t afraid to get physical, which usually works well for them. Iowa is good at setting screens and finding an open Clark, and she will get the looks she needs to score 35 or more tonight.
Finally, while setting the record is a foregone conclusion, if Iowa is to win the Big Ten, they must win tonight. For that to happen, Clark must deliver big, and I believe she will. She’s cleared 34.5 points in four of her last six matchups, and with the pressure finally off, look for her to make sure Iowa wins tonight and clear the 34.5-point scoring prop at DraftKings.
Caitlin Clark prop: Over 34.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
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Michigan vs Iowa spread and Over/Under analysis
There probably won’t be many betting markets available for tonight’s tilt, but the ones that will be available are the traditional moneyline-spread-total markets and, of course, a few prop bets for Clark.
The total at DraftKings opened at 154.5, and while that does seem low, it’s probably correct. Iowa can cover the -18.5, and the tilt could wind up Under the total because of the Wolverines' lack of offensive firepower.
Michigan ranks tenth in the Big Ten in scoring, and they’ve failed to clear 65 points or more in three of their last five. Over the past four home games, the Hawkeyes have allowed as many as 93 points to Penn State and as few as 50 to Wisconsin.
The most challenging thing about this total is figuring out which Iowa defense will turn up. That, and the Wolverine's inconsistent offense, leads me to fade the total altogether and place a wager or two in-game.
DraftKings has Michigan +1,000 to win this game straight-up. Iowa’s last home loss was to Kansas State on November 16. Michigan is 3-3 over their previous six away contests, and while anything is possible, beating Iowa at home is a tall order. The Wolverines don’t have the offense to score with the Hawkeyes, nor do I expect them to.
Michigan vs Iowa betting trend to know
Iowa is 8-1-0 ATS at home over its last nine when favored by -17.5 points or more. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Iowa.
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Iowa vs Nebraska game info
| Location: | Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA |
| Date: | Thursday, February 15, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
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