A heated intrastate and intraconference rivalry will tip off for the first time this season and the 191st time overall on Saturday afternoon as the Michigan Wolverines will head to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans.
It was a rough non-conference season for the Wolverines, but after a 3-0 start to their Big Ten season, they find themselves at 9-5 overall. The Spartans find themselves on a five-game winning streak and now sit at 10-4 on the season and 2-1 in the Big Ten. Which rival will get the bragging rights?
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans on Saturday, January 7 to find out.
Michigan vs Michigan State best odds
Michigan vs Michigan State picks and predictions
Both teams have a lot of similarities in their season and statistics. Both programs are fantastic defensive rebounding teams and make very few mistakes. They also both are not great at forcing turnovers. This game should come down to who makes their shots and runs the best offense.
Michigan lost its starting point guard, Jaelin Llewellyn, for the season to an injury suffered against Kentucky in London. True freshman, Dug McDaniel has had to step up in his place and has been more than serviceable. However, his lack of experience showed in a big game against North Carolina, shooting 3 of 10 from the field in a loss.
He’ll get another tough test on Saturday against the very experienced Tyson Walker, who has started 90 games in his college career and 42 games for the Spartans. Walker also leads the team in scoring at 13.9 points per game. His experience should get the best of McDaniel on the offensive end of the floor.
Where Michigan State will struggle is getting points around the rim. The Spartans allow their opponents to average 3.9 blocks per game and they will be going up against Hunter Dickinson on Saturday. Dickinson averages 1.7 blocks per game and recorded five denials against Virginia and three against Kentucky, which were two of their toughest games of the season.
The good news for the Spartans is that they are an excellent 3-point shooting team. While they don’t attempt a ton, they certainly make them count. Michigan State shoots 37.5% from downtown, which ranks 35th in the nation. Michigan allows 22.8 3-point field goal attempts per game, which ranks 240th in the country, so the Spartans should have plenty of opportunities available.
Since this game will likely come down to who runs the best offense and hits the most shots, I must roll with the Spartans to do just that. Their experience at the guard position and ability to hit shots from downtown will be the ultimate difference makers. Give me the Spartans to win and cover at home.
My best bet: Michigan State -3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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Michigan vs Michigan State spread analysis
While the Wolverines will be missing an important player, the Spartans will be getting one back closer to full health. Senior forward Malik Hall missed several games with a foot injury, but returned in the previous two games in limited fashion. Hall will likely be much closer to a full go on Saturday in this huge rivalry game.
Hall scored 20 points and recorded five rebounds against Kentucky in his last fully healthy game before his injury against Villanova. If he can add anything close to that level of performance to this game, the Wolverines will be in a world of trouble. Walker and A.J. Hoggard will have another weapon to dish the ball to besides scoring on their own.
Michigan is a dreadful 7-20 against the spread in their last 27 games following an ATS win. Meanwhile, the Spartans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games against a team with a losing road record. Also, the home team has covered eight consecutive games in this rivalry.
These trends should continue with the Spartans winning and covering this game thanks to their offensive efficiency and experience. Michigan has lost three of their last four games away from home and they will find themselves missing home on Saturday.
Michigan vs Michigan State Over/Under analysis
These two teams typically like to play different styles when it comes to scoring. Michigan games average 145.9 points per game, while Michigan State games average 137.0. This total finds itself right in the middle of these two averages.
The trends are certainly leaning towards an Over in this matchup. The Over is 16-5 in the Wolverines’ last 21 road games and 12-4 in the last 16 Michigan games against a team with a winning straight-up record. The Over is 10-4 in the last 14 Michigan State home games and 12-4 in the Spartans’ last 16 games against a team with a winning record SU.
Even though Michigan State is known for playing tough basketball and keeping games low-scoring, their games against their best opponents have been high-scoring. This game will likely be similar, especially since both teams are so efficient on offense. Give me the Over here.
Michigan vs Michigan State betting trend to know
The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more College basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Michigan State.
Michigan vs Michigan State game info
| Location: | Jack Breslin Student Events Center, Lansing, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, January 7, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
