Michigan State faces New Mexico in our second-to-last game of the weekend, with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line. TNT has live coverage beginning at 8:40 p.m. ET from Rocket Arena in Cleveland.
Sparty was tested early in the first round against Bryant but eventually pulled away to a very comfortable degree. New Mexico took care of business against Marquette. A trendy upset pick, the Lobos almost never trailed and dispatched the Golden Eagles by nine.
Read on for my Michigan State vs. New Mexico predictions and March Madness picks for Sunday, March 23.
Who will win New Mexico vs Michigan State?
Neither outcome would surprise me, but I'm going with New Mexico. We're backing them on the number with some comfort, and although I don't have that same degree of comfort here, I still like the Lobos.
New Mexico will force Michigan State into jump shots, which has long been an issue with this team throughout the year. The 49% shooting from the 2PT range over the last month is a concern, and that issue will be highlighted today. There's a chance they get an above-average shooting night from the field, and if they do that, their depth will win out. But backing New Mexico means you're backing the best player on the court in Donavon Dent, and I'll take my chances.
New Mexico vs Michigan State prediction
My best bet: New Mexico +7.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Michigan State Spartans have the luxury (if you could call it that) of playing a team that shares many similarities with itself for the second straight game in the tournament in the New Mexico Lobos.
Offensively, both teams use their bigs at a high frequency. For New Mexico, that is a lot of high post stuff; they are in the 97th percentile in big cut and roll frequency and the 80th percentile in high/low frequency. Michigan State is nearly identical but even more extreme. They'll enter this game in the 98th percentile of frequency in big cut and roll and the 95th percentile of high/low frequency. I say all this to say that this game is low-scoring.
Both teams' familiarity with these sets has made them exceptionally good defensively against them. That means both teams are likely to get out of the natural rhythm of their offense. The only problem is that I'm worried about the pace. These are two exploitable transition defenses with two teams who will have no problem going early. It's pushed me back to New Mexico on the number. Defensively, you already know why: It can defend the primary actions of the Michigan State offense well in the halfcourt. I also think it can get just enough offense.
What you'll see from both defenses is what you often see now in basketball: That's a hard hedge on the initial ball screen for the opposing PG. This has been something that Lobos PG Donovan Dent has been great at exploiting this year and even did it earlier this season against a Big Ten team in UCLA.
When this happens, even though I mentioned Sparty could defend them relatively well, New Mexico can still exploit the flat-footedness of the Michigan State bigs with Nelly Junior Joseph cutting to the basket. He's been spectacular down the stretch, and there's nothing I see in this matchup that should slow him down.
When Dent and Junior Joseph have gotten comfortable this season, they've been extremely tough to beat. New Mexico has only lost two games this season when the Senior PG has had six or more assists, with one of those coming when Joseph was held to just 6 points against San Diego State. This is too many points given the expectation of how effective the tandem can be.
Michigan State may have better depth in the backcourt, but New Mexico will have the best guard on the floor. I can't ignore that in a tournament setting.
New Mexico vs Michigan State same-game parlay (SGP)
New Mexico +7.5
Donovan Dent Over 5.5 assists
Nelly Junior Joseph Over 14.5 points
I played this combo in the first New Mexico game, and there's no reason to change it here.
Against top-50 opponents this season, Michigan State has allowed 1.1 points per possession on plays defined as "big cuts and rolls." I mentioned they had been good overall this season defending these actions, and they have, but in the short data size against elite teams, they haven't been. That led us to this two-leg approach.
I expect Dent and Junior Joseph to link up on this action repeatedly throughout the game, so we paired Dent's assists total with Junior Joseph's point total. As I said, it worked well in New Mexico's first matchup, and much like Marquette, Michigan State should have an issue defending this action.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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New Mexico vs Michigan State odds
New Mexico vs Michigan State live odds
New Mexico vs Michigan State opening odds
- Spread: New Mexico +7 | Michigan State -7
- Moneyline: New Mexico +265 | Michigan State -330
- Over/Under: Over 148 | Under 148
Odds courtesy of bet365.
New Mexico vs Michigan State betting trend to know
New Mexico has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.30 Units / 21% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for New Mexico vs. Michigan State.
How to watch New Mexico vs Michigan State
| Region | South | |
| Location |
Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH
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| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 | |
| Tip-off | 8:40 p.m. ET | |
| TV | TNT |
New Mexico vs Michigan State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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