The Michigan Wolverines and the North Carolina Tar Heels face off in the inaugural Jumpman Invitational on Wednesday night. Neither team is ranked, but both are marquee programs with plenty of talent and are more than capable of making a run during March Madness.
While this game is technically at a neutral site, playing at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte should give the Tar Heels the feeling of being at home. College basketball odds opened with UNC as a 4.5-point favorite before growing to -5.5.
Here are my best free Michigan vs. North Carolina college basketball betting picks and predictions for December 21.
Michigan vs North Carolina best odds
Michigan vs North Carolina picks and predictions
Michigan guard Kobe Bufkin broke out with a career-high 22 points against Lipscomb on Saturday. Bufkin was ranked as the No. 40 recruit in the country in 2021 according to ESPN but had a quiet freshman season where he averaged just 3.0 points in 10.6 minutes per game.
He has seen his playing time surge to 31.1 mpg this season and with a recent season-ending injury to guard Jaelin Llewellyn, he should continue to see a high usage rate.
The Tar Heels haven't been great defensively, ranking outside the Top 150 in both defensive efficiency (98 points allowed per 100 possessions) and opponent effective field-goal percentage (49.2%).
With the Over/Under on Bufkin's points set at 10.5 — a number he has eclipsed in four consecutive games — take the Over.
My best bet: Kobe Bufkin Over 10.5 points (-135 at bet365)
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Michigan vs North Carolina spread analysis
The Tar Heels are 3-0 straight up and against the spread in their last three games, coming off an 89-84 overtime win against Ohio State. That game followed a similar script for UNC, who scored at will inside and dominated on the glass, but went just 6-for-28 from 3-point range.
Prior to that winning streak, the Tar Heels had lost four-straight games, dropping them out of the AP Top 25 after entering the season ranked as the No. 1 team in the country.
North Carolina has virtually the same rotation that fell just short in the national championship game last spring, but despite that continuity, the Tar Heels' poor shooting from beyond the arc (30.4%) and subpar defense have doomed them against some of the better teams they've faced.
That said, they are excellent on the glass, rarely turn the ball over, and are efficient from 2-point range which has led to them being ranked ninth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom.
Big man Armando Bacot (17.5 points and 11.6 rebounds per game) is a Wooden Award candidate and his ability to clean up on the boards gives UNC plenty of extra chances on offense.
Guards Caleb Love (18.3 ppg, 3.7 apg) and R.J. Davis (15.7 ppg, 3.1 apg) are also very productive, but have been brutal from beyond the arc. They are combining to shoot just 28.8% from long range after knocking down 36.3% of their threes last season.
The Wolverines have won back-to-back games and most recently beat Lipscomb 83-75 at home. That allowed them to bounce back from a couple of close defeats to Kentucky and Virginia and proved they could get the job done on offense without Llewellyn — who was tied for the team lead with 2.8 apg before tearing his ACL two weeks ago.
The Wolverines have the lowest turnover rate in the country and rank 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They are led by 2022 second-team All-American Hunter Dickinson (19.1 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 2 bpg) and the battle between him and Bacot should be highly entertaining.
Like UNC, Michigan has also struggled on defense and has almost identical numbers when it comes to defensive efficiency (98.3 points allowed per 100 possessions) and opponent EFG% (48.8%).
Michigan vs North Carolina Over/Under analysis
Both of these teams have been better on offense than defense while also playing at a faster-than-average pace with the ball.
The Tar Heels are 39th in the country in average length of possession (15.9 seconds) while the Wolverines are 102nd (16.7 seconds) and that combined with how well they take care of the ball has resulted in some high-scoring numbers.
Keep in mind that neither team does a good job of forcing turnovers either, so expect both offenses to look very efficient in half-court sets. They also don't defend the arc well, with both teams ranking just outside the Top 200 in opponent 3-point percentage.
That said, only one team has been able to consistently knock down treys and that's the Wolverines. They have a 35.7 3-point percentage on the season and have seen that number jump up to 43.9% over their last three games.
Michigan vs North Carolina betting trend to know
The Over is 25-12 in Michigan's last 37 games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. North Carolina.
Michigan vs North Carolina game info
| Location: | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Wednesday, December 21, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
