Michigan vs Rutgers Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wolverines Beast Scarlet Knights

The wheels have fallen off for the Rutgers Scarlet Knights since forward Mawot Mag was lost for the season. It will be tough for them to find their path anew when facing the Michigan Wolverines in a situation where Juwan Howard’s team has excelled this season.

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Rutgers vs Michigan on Thursday, March 9, with tip set for 12:00 ET.

Michigan vs Rutgers best odds

Michigan vs Rutgers picks and predictions

Rutgers was 8-4 in the Big Ten and 9-3 against the spread when the 6-foot-7, 216-pound Mawot Mag was healthy. He was an efficient scorer that buoyed the Knights’ offense and had them in position for a double bye in this conference tournament and, quite possibly, a Top 5 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Then Mag suffered a knee injury on Feb. 4 against Michigan State. Rutgers still won that day, but that was about the end of their good times. Since then, the Knights have gone 2-6 straight-up and 1-6-1 ATS. They had been 9-3 ATS in conference play up until then.

Mag’s absence decimated Rutgers’ greatest dreams and clearly the math has not caught up to that impact.

One of those losses came against the Wolverines. The Knights jumped out to a 13-3 lead in the first eight minutes. From there, Michigan outscored Rutgers 55-32. If the Knights had been holding out hope they could find some traction, coming off a one-point road win at Wisconsin, then that complete and total collapse sealed the season’s trajectory.

Frankly, that could be this entire handicap. Repeating how much the Knights have struggled without Mag — going 1-6-1 ATS without him should be emphasized — and using that faceplant against today’s competition as the clearest example.

But then there is a particular Michigan angle to further faith in the Wolverines today. A bet can be made simply because of doubt in one team, but it is a better handicap if there is also reason to believe in the other.

Michigan has had four days off. In conference play, the Wolverines went 5-2-1 ATS coming off at least four days of rest and 7-5 ATS on shorter rest. If that disparity is not staunch enough to trust, then also realize Michigan is 4-0 ATS in its last four games with at least four days’ rest, topping opponents like Illinois and Michigan State. The Wolverines covered those spreads by an average of 11.5 points, helped in part by so soundly beating Rutgers despite being 5-point underdogs.

Unsurprisingly, the Knights have struggled in these exact spots of late, given they have struggled in all spots without Mag. In its last four games on at least four days’ rest, Rutgers has gone 0-4 ATS, part of this month-long misery without the interior presence.

My best bet: Michigan -3.0 (-110 at DraftKings)

Michigan vs Rutgers spread analysis

What would it take for Rutgers to cover this 3-point spread without Mag? The Knights have beaten the spread just once since his injury, winning at Penn State, 59-56, as four-point underdogs. Rutgers trailed by 19 points early before a strong second-half surge, buoyed by the Nittany Lions being sloppy with the ball.

More than anything, the Knights were carried by a career-high 16 points from freshman guard Derek Simpson off the bench. Simpson played 28 minutes in part because senior guard Paul Mulcahy fouled out in 29 minutes, going scoreless as he did so.

Is some version of that replicable against the Wolverines? Probably not, given Michigan’s defense is notably better than Penn State’s with a stingy two-point defense that ranks in the top quarter of the country. Furthemore, the Wolverines rank No. 10 in the country in protecting the ball, per Ken Pomeroy. The Nittany Lions typically fare even better in that regard, showcasing how flukey it was that Rutgers benefited from nine turnovers that evening.

Michigan vs Rutgers Over/Under analysis

The Mag effect can be seen in Knights’ totals, as well. While Rutgers had cashed Overs in only 10 of 23 games on the season and 4 of 12 in conference play before it lost the junior, that rate has fallen to just two of eight games going Over the total since Mag’s injury.

For a team that already struggled to produce, life got more difficult without Mag.

This 133.5 total is still lofty, compared to five of Rutgers’ last six games, the exception being that loss to Michigan. That pregame total was 135, the Under cashing by 32 points.

The Wolverines typically push games Over their totals, but the Knights’ inefficiencies without Mag should prove too cumbersome for such entertainment.

Michigan vs Rutgers betting trend to know

Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last five games, all against teams with winning straight-up records. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Rutgers.

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