The seasons aren’t finished for the Oklahoma Sooners and Missouri State Bears. While neither team made the NCAA Tournament, both teams received the consolation prize of playing in the NIT.
Oklahoma was one of those few that just missed the cut despite beating multiple teams in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Missouri State didn’t make the NCAA Tournament due to not winning the Missouri Valley Conference, which is usually a one-big league.
Will Oklahoma shine in a tournament like the NIT? Here are our college basketball betting picks and predictions for the first-round NIT matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Missouri State Bears.
Missouri State vs Oklahoma odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Oklahoma Sooners opened as a 6-point favorite and haven’t adjusted since. However, the total dropped from 139 at opening to as low as 137.5 at some outlets by the time of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Missouri State vs Oklahoma predictions
Predictions made on 3/15/2022 at 7:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Missouri State vs Oklahoma game info
• Location: Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, OK
• Date: Tuesday, March 15, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Missouri State vs Oklahoma betting preview
Injuries
Missouri State: Demarcus Sharp G (Out).
Oklahoma: Elijah Harkless G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bears are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Missouri State vs. Oklahoma.
Missouri State vs Oklahoma picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
When it comes to the NIT, many people worry about motivation. After missing out on the NCAA Tournament, will a team play just as hard trying to win the NIT? But overall, if any team didn’t want to try and win the NIT with their teammates, that team wouldn’t accept the invitation into the lower-tier tournament.
Oklahoma is shooting a high effective field goal percentage of 54.5% while hitting just under 34% from deep and 57% from inside the arc. Even at the line, Oklahoma is shooting 74.3% despite not getting there all that frequently.
The Sooners have struggled on the offensive glass, earning just 25.6% offensive rebounds, and are continuing to turn the ball over at a rapid pace of 22.3%. However, Missouri State isn’t really a threat to force turnovers. The Bears average just 15.8% turnovers per game on the defensive end.
But the Bears are holding teams to 23.9% offensive rebounds. Therefore, Oklahoma will likely be shut down on the offensive glass. Teams are shooting a 48.4% effective field goal percentage against Missouri State and knocking down 33.1% from deep and 47.6% from inside.
On the offensive end, Missouri State was unstoppable in MVC play. The Bears shot 54.9% from deep and only turned the ball over 15.5% of the time. Despite shooting 36.4% from three, 55% from inside, and 79.6% from the foul line, the Bears couldn’t reach the NCAA Tournament and win the MVC. Still, this offense is really good outside of the fact that, like Oklahoma, offensive rebounds and foul attempts are hard to come by.
But the difference in this game is Oklahoma’s defense in comparison to Missouri State’s. Oklahoma is holding teams to 30.9% from deep and 50.5% from inside. However, the Sooners also do the little things like earning 20.6% turnovers.
I prefer the high-major team to escape with a convincing win at home.
Prediction: Oklahoma -6 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Both teams dominate inside offensively. Missouri State is shooting 55% from the field inside while Oklahoma is shooting 57%.
Neither team has been great defending inside throughout the year and although both teams likely won’t get to the line too frequently, both are above-average foul-shooting teams and should be able to earn a solid amount of points from the line.
I expect Oklahoma to limit turnovers. And while the Sooners are experts at forcing turnovers, Missouri State was one of the most disciplined teams in this regard in the nation, coughing the rock up just 10.6 times per game (tied for 32nd in the nation).
Therefore, I like the over in this matchup.
Prediction: Over 137.5 (-110)
Best bet
If Oklahoma can limit turnovers against Missouri State and continue to dominate inside the arc offensively, the Sooners should be able to stretch out a lead throughout the game.
Missouri State’s offense is a major threat outside of offensive rebounding. However, Oklahoma has been consistent defensively, doing a little bit of everything to keep offenses honest.
If the commitment is there from Oklahoma, the Sooners will win this game at home while also covering the spread.
Pick: Oklahoma -6 (-110)
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