The sixth-seeded North Carolina State Wolfpack face off against the No. 11 Virginia Tech Hokies in the second round of the ACC Tournament Wednesday night. The Hokies barely got by the Fighting Irish last night and will take on a Wolfpack team that hasn't played since losing at Duke last week.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close contest with college basketball odds opening with the Wolfpack as 2.5-point favorites. Here are my best free NC State vs. Virginia Tech college basketball picks and predictions for March 8.
NC State vs Virginia Tech best odds
NC State vs Virginia Tech picks and predictions
The Wolfpack already beat Virginia Tech this season while playing on the road, and it's tough to see this contest going any differently on a neutral site.
Especially with the Hokies on the tail end of a back-to-back after squeaking by a mediocre Notre Dame squad last night, and the Wolfpack well rested and making the short trip from Raleigh to Greensboro.
Both of these teams have been efficient on the offensive end of the floor but the Wolfpack have been the superior squad defensively. They do a much better job of blocking shots (21st in the country in block percentage) and coming away with steals (33rd in steals per defensive play) than the Hokies who rank outside the Top 150 in both categories.
NC State also defends the arc very well and holds conference opponents to just 31.5% shooting from deep.
Virginia Tech's starters played a heavy load in last night's contest. While they should be able to keep things close early, expect those tired legs to be exposed in the second half against an NC State team that loves to run.
My best bet: NC State -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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NC State vs Virginia Tech spread analysis
Virginia Tech beat Notre Dame 67-64 last night but failed to cover the spread as a 6.5-point fave. It's been a rollercoaster season for the Hokies, who won 10 of their first 11 games before losing seven in a row between December 21 and January 21. They've been more competitive lately, going 8-5 straight up and 7-6 against the spread in their last 13 games.
The Wolfpack haven't played since last Tuesday when they lost 71-67 on the road against Duke. They finished the regular season with a 12-8 mark in conference play but dropped four of their last seven games.
NC State doesn't do a good job of shooting from beyond the arc and needs to attack the basket more often. However, it rarely turn the ball over, is very efficient at mid-range, and does an excellent job of running its offense through the post.
The Wolfpack are led by guards Terquavion Smith (17.3 points and 4.4 assists per game) and Jarkel Joiner (17.3 ppg, 3.5 apg). Center D.J. Burns is a 275-pound load in the post and averages 13.1 ppg on 56.8% shooting in just 23.2 minutes per game.
Grant Basile (16.6 ppg on 52/40/71 shooting) and Sean Pedulla (15.3 ppg) have been filling up the hoop for the Hokies. Versatile forward Justyn Mutts leads the team in rebounds (7.5), assists (4.7), and steals (1.5) per game while adding 13.1 ppg.
The Hokies shoot the ball very well and rank 31st in the country in effective field goal percentage (54.1%). However, they've been shaky on defense and allow 73.3 ppg on 46% shooting in conference play.
Both of these teams do a fantastic job of taking care of the ball with NC State fifth in the country in turnover rate (13.2%) and VT 14th (14.5%). When these teams faced off earlier this season in Blacksburg, the Wolfpack jumped out to a 14-point lead at the half and held on for a 73-69 victory.
NC State vs Virginia Tech Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 150 but money has poured in on the Under, moving the line to as low as 145.5. It will be interesting to see how this game plays out since KenPom has a projected total of 152 for this contest while ShotQualityBets is expecting a much lower score of just 134.2.
It's rare to see such a massive discrepancy on both ends of the number from such highly-respected college basketball betting models but there's a reason for it.
KenPom places a heavy emphasis on adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and adjusted tempo. Both sides rank in the Top 40 of the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and have been less impressive on defense where NC State ranks 81st and Virginia Tech is 115th.
Although the Hokies play at a slightly below-average adjusted tempo, the Wolfpack like to push the pace and are 91st in that category.
Meanwhile, ShotQualityBets uses specific efficiency on offense and defense in terms of plays run and shot types. Virginia Tech's biggest weakness is its ball-screen defense but the Wolfpack are just 279th in the country in efficiency in pick-and-roll ball-screen situations.
These teams are also near the bottom of the country in free throw rate, and Virginia Tech does a good job of defending shots at the rim while NC State allows a low volume of shots at the rim. That means easy baskets could be hard to find for both squads.
NC State vs Virginia Tech betting trend to know
The Hokies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win while the Wolfpack are 6-1-1 ATS in their previous eight contests following a loss. Find more college basketball betting trends for NC State vs. Virginia Tech.
NC State vs Virginia Tech game info
| Conference: | ACC Round 2 |
| Location: | Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 8, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
