The NCAA Tournament tips off today and bettors should be paying close attention to the game totals in the Round of 64. The Over is 43-21 on the first two days of the Big Dance over the last two years.
The average combined score in Round of 64 games in 2015 was 134.3 points. That number jumped to 145.6 points in 2016 and went up to 150.7 just last year. That’s an increase of 16.4 points per game in just two years. The increase in scoring isn’t limited to postseason tournaments. The average total points scored in a regular season game four years ago was 133.5. This year it’s 145.8.
The timing of the upward trend in totals and scoring in the sport is directly linked to the shortening of the shot clock from 35 seconds to 30, but that doesn’t completely explain why games scores are still soaring past Vegas’ posted Over/Under lines.
Oddsmakers base their numbers off the data from each team’s regular season. Possessions, points scored, and points allowed per game are all factors sportsbooks consider before posting their game totals. Those data points all deal with a 30-second shot clock because that’s what teams use during the regular season as well.
The thing that separates the tournament from the regular season is the amount of fouling at the end “close” games. Everyone’s knows about this because there’s nothing more annoying – unless you’re holding an Over ticket – than a team refusing to concede a game and continuing to foul the opposing side. This strategy is employed to stop the clock and gain additional possessions for the trailing team.
The combination of the shot clock change and the increased foul rate in the tournament must have caught oddsmakers offguard but they’re seeking to correct the issue this year. The average total is 144.3 in the Round of 64 this year. Three years ago it was 134.2.
The Midwest is the region with the highest average Over/Under lines this year. The average total in the region – before the release of the TCU-Syracuse odds – is 149.6, and there’s a good reason for the high numbers. Six of the top 31 teams in the country in points scored per game – including three of the top 11 – are in the Midwest. The Oklahoma Sooners are the rare team among the leaders in college basketball in points per game (85.2) and points allowed (81.2).
Teams from the Midwest Region own a combined 238-199-9 Over/Under record and only two teams (Syracuse and New Mexico State) had more games played Under than Over the total in their games this year.
Barstool’s Big Cat promotes the motto life is too short to bet the Under. That philosophy has been profitable when applied to the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 64 over the last two years. All four play-in games this week went Under the total and by healthy margins. We’ll soon find out whether this brief Big Dance Over trend is ending in the tournament.
