Oklahoma State vs Kansas Picks and Predictions: Cowboys Defense Hangs Tough

With just under a month left to play in the regular season, the No. 6 Kansas Jayhawks (20-4, 9-2) are making a final push for a No. 1 seed for the Big Dance.

Ahead of them on Monday night are the Oklahoma State Cowboys (12-12, 5-7), losers of five of their last seven. Although the matchup seems like a cakewalk for the Jayhawks, there is a lot more to the game than what meets the eye.

Continue reading for our free college basketball picks and predictions for Oklahoma State vs. Kansas on Monday, February 14th for more.

Oklahoma State vs Kansas odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Kansas opened as 12-point favorites and have since been bet down to -10.5. The total opened at 143.5 and has since moved a touch down to 143.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Oklahoma State vs Kansas predictions

• Prediction: Oklahoma State +10.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 143 (-110)
• Best bet: Oklahoma State +10.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/14/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Oklahoma State vs Kansas game info

• Location: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS
• Date: Monday, February 14, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Oklahoma State at Kansas betting preview

Injuries

Oklahoma State: No injuries to report.
Kansas: Remy Martin G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Kansas is 2-6 ATS in conference play as favorites of -5 or more. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oklahoma State vs. Kansas.

Oklahoma State vs Kansas picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

At 20-4 and 9-2 in conference play, the Kansas Jayhawks are amidst another brilliant season under Bill Self. Despite that long stretch of brilliance, Self has still managed to win just one National Championship fourteen long seasons ago and he has not taken his team back to the National Championship game in a decade. With just under a month left in the regular season, Kansas is looking to solidify its case as a No. 1 seed for the Big Dance in March in order to create an easier path to do exactly that. Among them are realistically six other teams, and this is how they currently stack up against each other:

Who would your four No. 1 seeds be right now? pic.twitter.com/u9ZI5t5ziW

— Lukas Harkins (@hardwiredsports) February 14, 2022'

Kansas' opponent on Monday, the Oklahoma State Cowboys (12-12, 5-7), is currently 48th in the NET rankings which makes Monday's game a Quadrant 2 game for the Jayhawks. With one Quadrant 2 loss already on their record, another one tonight would put them firmly out of the top-seed conversation. Leading scorer Ochai Agbaji (19.9 PPG, 5.1 APG) will obviously play a very large role in how the game plays out, but there's been arguably a more important player as of late.

Sophomore forward Jalen Wilson has had an emergence over the last month and particularly of late. After averaging 5.5 points per game in his first 10 games, Wilson has averaged 13.7 points in the twelve games since. He has seemingly found his stroke from deep, shooting 36.8% from three during that stretch compared to the 8.7% he shot in the first ten games. He has also been a force on the boards, averaging 7.8 rebounds in his last 10. His brilliance has been on full display in the last four games, averaging 17 points per game, leading the team in scoring twice, and racking up three double-doubles. 

And while a 12-12 team in Oklahoma State does not seem intimidating on paper, there is one reason why they're still rated inside the Top 50 of overall efficiency metrics: their defense. The Cowboys' defense ranks 14th in KenPom, and it's a unit that certainly can give Jalen Wilson and Ochai Agbaji and the rest of the Kansas offense trouble. Oklahoma State emphasizes providing help anytime a ball-handler begins penetration, ensuring any shots or passes inside the perimeter have to go through plenty of traffic. As a result, the Cowboys force 16.9 turnovers per game (16th in the nation) while allowing just a 49.4% field goal percentage at the rim (forth).

Although Kansas takes care of the ball relatively well by committing just 13.0 turnovers per game, they do take 41.1% of their shots at the rim (58th) and make 66.2% of their shots there (27th). If Kansas is finding a lot of trouble down low, there is another way for Kansas to generate some offense. With all of the help that comes inside the perimeter, Oklahoma State has had trouble closing out on threes. The 33.0% they've allowed from three in conference play ranks eighth out of 10 in the Big 12, and Kansas has shot 35.5% which leads the conference. The problem, however, is that Kansas isn't a team that particularly leans on perimeter shooting: their 19.2 attempts from three in conference play are the third-fewest, and waiting too long to incorporate more three-point volume may make it difficult to cover a double-digit spread.

Prediction: Oklahoma State +10.5 (-110)

Covers NCAA basketball betting analysis

Over/Under analysis

Given their defensive strength, Oklahoma State rarely sees totals north of 140 like today's total of 143. In conference play, the Cowboys have had just two totals above 140 (first game vs. Kansas and their game against Baylor) and they went under the total both times. Kansas on the other hand has played 6-1 to the Under in the last seven totals of 140 or higher.

And while Oklahoma State's defense will help the spread, their offense (or lack thereof) will help the total. Their 69.8 points per game rank 220th in the nation, their 44.0% field goal percentage ranks 190th, their 30.2% 3-point percentage ranks 329th, and their 67.1% free throw percentage ranks 311th. It would be no surprise to see their offense struggle at times in Allen Fieldhouse tonight.

Given the construction of the matchup, it's difficult to find a reliable path for these two teams to give an exceptional combined scoring output.

Prediction: Under 143 (-110)

Best bet

While Oklahoma State might not have the most impressive offense, their defense should keep this game within a respectable margin. They covered the spread the only other two times they have been double-digit underdogs this season, and both of those games were also on the road. In fact, they won their game against Baylor outright, a game in which they were 14-point underdogs.

And while Kansas seemingly has way more motivation than the Cowboys for Monday's affair, they have not fared well as sizable favorites. In conference games in which they have been favored by five points or more, Kansas has a 2-6 record against the spread. And while Bill Self is a hell of a coach, he has had trouble getting the most out of his players off of quick turnarounds: the Jayhawks have played to a 0-3 record against the spread this year on one day of rest.

The Cowboys have the edge.

Pick: Oklahoma State +10.5 (-110)

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