Oklahoma vs Texas Tech Big 12 Tournament Picks and Predictions: Red Raiders End OK's Run

In lieu of being outside of the bubble and looking in, the Oklahoma Sooners (18-14, 7-11) stunned the reigning national champion and third-ranked Baylor Bears and now find themselves with an opportunity to advance to the Big 12 championship. 

In front of them are the Texas Tech Red Raiders (24-8, 12-6), who put a sluggish finish to the regular season behind them en route to a 31-point beatdown of Iowa State. Can Oklahoma keep the madness coming or will Texas Tech put its foot down?

Continue reading for free college basketball picks and predictions for Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech matchup on March 11th. 

Oklahoma vs Texas Tech odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The spread opened with Texas Tech as 7-point favorites and it has since moved to -7.5. The total opened at 126 and has since moved to 125.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Oklahoma vs Texas Tech predictions

• Prediction: Texas Tech -7.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 125.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Texas Tech -7.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/11/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Oklahoma vs Texas Tech game info

• Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO
• Date: Friday, March 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Oklahoma vs Texas Tech betting preview

Injuries

Oklahoma: No injuries to report.
Texas Tech: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Texas Tech is 7-1 against the spread as favorites of seven or more points against Big 12 opponents. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech.

Oklahoma vs Texas Tech picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Oklahoma pulled off the upset on Thursday when it beat the regular-season co-champion Baylor Bears. The Sooners pulled it out by winning the perimeter battle in a huge way, shooting 11-21 (52.4%) from three to Baylor's 3-22 (13.6%). They defied all odds by doing so, ranking dead last in the Big 12 in 3-point percentage allowed while Baylor possessed the best 3-point percentage in the conference.

We noted Oklahoma's depth ahead of yesterday's matchup and that came into play last night, with five different players chipping in double-digit points. It will need a similar effort across the rotation to dislodge Texas Tech's defense, which ranks as the best in the nation according to KenPom defensive efficiency metrics and advanced in the first round by holding Iowa State to a measly 41 points en route to a 31 point beat down.

The Red Raiders outright suffocated the Cyclones, holding them to 15-48 shooting (31.3%) while out-rebounding them by 40 to 24. They did this despite scoring leader Bryson Williams chipping in six points, which begs the question of what this team's ceiling is if they could make such easy work of a respectable opponent without much noise from Williams. Terrance Shannon (14 points on 5-9 shooting) and Adonis Arms (10 points on 5-7 shooting) picked up the slack and propelled Texas Tech to the semifinals with ease.

In the first two matchups between these teams, the two programs exchanged pretty heavy blows. Oklahoma won the first affair to a tune of 70-55 in early February, but Texas Tech came with a 66-42 answer later that month. That win came at the tail end of a four-game win streak, which was followed by some questionable play from the Red Raiders. They finished the season dropping two of their last three, losing both to unranked opponents and narrowly beating Big 12 bottom-dweller Kansas State at home.

As exciting and inspiring the Sooners' perimeter performance was yesterday, it'd be unwise to expect a similar one on Friday given their track record. They are much more likely to lean on their attacking of the rim, which could cause some trouble for them if that is the case. Texas Tech at the rim ranks second in the nation in percentage of shots allowed and 13th in field goal percentage allowed.

Prediction: Texas Tech -7.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Despite its defensive standing in the nation, Friday's total of 125.5 actually profiles as one of Texas Tech's lowest. It has only seen two other totals at or below that mark and has split the two. Oklahoma has seen just one total of 125.5 or lower, playing to the Over in that game.

While Oklahoma had seen some extensive offensive struggles through February, the story has changed ever since the calendar flipped to March, averaging 74 points in their last three games. Texas Tech also had some offensive struggles, averaging just 63.4 points in its final five regular season games, but amended that with its 72-point performance yesterday - which could have been more had the game not been a 31 point blowout.

Prediction: Over 125.5 (-110)

Best bet

If Thursday is indicative of anything, Texas Tech has seemingly put its shaky regular season finish behind it and mean business heading into the thick of March. It combined a good offensive performance with a stellar defensive one and sent Iowa State packing.

In the process of doing so, Texas Tech improved its record against the spread, now possessing the eighth-best record in the nation against the spread at 21-11 (65.6%). The Red Raiders have been able to accomplish that mark largely due to their ability to take care of business in these types of matchups in Big 12 play. As favorites of seven points or more against conference opponents, Texas Tech has now played 7-1 against the spread after yesterday.

And while Oklahoma stunning Baylor yesterday is exactly what March is all about, it required an extreme outlier performance from three on both ends that would be unwise to count on materializing again.

Pick: Texas Tech -7.5 (-110)

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