The Oregon Ducks weren’t supposed to be in this position. Oregon was selected to be one of the top teams in the Pac-12 but had a really inconsistent year that led them to an NIT appearance this postseason.
The Ducks will start NIT play on the road against the Utah State Aggies, whose dreams of making the NCAA Tournament ended after a loss to Colorado State, in a 53-51 defensive thriller.
Can Oregon put up a fight on the road? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Oregon vs. Utah State on Tuesday, March 15.
Oregon vs Utah State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Utah State opened as a 5-point favorite but is starting to drop to -4.5 at some outlets. Meanwhile, the total hasn’t changed since opening at 143.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Oregon vs Utah State predictions
Predictions made on 3/15/2022 at 8:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Oregon vs Utah State game info
• Location: Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, UT
• Date: Tuesday, March 15, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Oregon vs Utah State betting preview
Injuries
Oregon: Will Richardson G (Questionable).
Utah State: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon vs. Utah State.
Oregon vs Utah State picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Throughout the year, everyone kept waiting for the Oregon Ducks to play up to their full potential. But it just never happened this year.
Oregon was an above-average team analytically but never put complete games together. The Ducks are shooting 33.6% from deep and 51.7% from inside the arc. Oregon only turned the ball over 17.3% of the time and earned nearly 30% offensive rebounds.
However, Utah State’s defensive rebounding is one of the best in the nation, allowing just 22.8% offensive rebounds this season and doing a really good job at limiting teams from getting second chances.
Still, opponents will get some good looks with Utah State only earning a 49.4% effective field goal percentage on the defensive end.
On the other hand, Utah State is dominant inside the arc and has plenty of shooters that can drain long-range shots. The Aggies are hitting 34.2% from deep and 56.6% from inside, and that’s crucial information knowing Oregon has struggled to get stops inside the arc throughout the season.
The Ducks are allowing teams to shoot 50.3% from 2-point range, which is a below-average number defensively. On the defensive glass, Oregon has also coughed up 30.6% of offensive rebounds. Utah State isn’t going to crash the glass at a rapid pace on the offensive end but might have more opportunity to do so against Oregon.
Utah State should win the rebounding battle and ultimately shoot at a higher percentage. Therefore, I’ll take Utah State at -4.5.
Prediction: Utah State -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Opponents are using 18.5 seconds per possession on the offensive end against Utah State this season. It’s taking a long time for teams to find good looks against the Aggies.
After using most of the shot clock, teams then struggle to earn second chances, with Utah State holding offensive rebounds to just 22.8% on the season.
On the other hand, the Aggies should have success inside the arc, but from deep, they might be held a little bit, knowing Oregon has defended the perimeter better than they’ve defended inside the arc.
With that said, I’ll take the Under in this game.
Prediction: Under 143.5 (-110)
Best bet
Ultimately, Oregon has struggled on the road and will now have to play another road game to start the NIT. Utah State is built to beat any team in the nation if they’re having a good day.
Remember, Utah State came inches away from beating a really good St. Mary’s team earlier this year, losing by just two points during the non-conference slate.
With Will Richardson’s status up in the air, it just seems like Oregon is going to struggle to find much success in this one.
Let’s take Utah State at home.
Pick: Utah State -4.5 (-110)
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