Purdue vs Ohio State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Can OSU Help Push Total Over?

After firing head coach Chris Holtmann following a loss to Wisconsin earlier this week, the Ohio State Buckeyes must now deal with the Purdue Boilermakers as Matt Painter’s program heads to Columbus as a heavy favorite.

The college basketball odds have No. 2 Purdue -9 on the road with this struggling Buckeyes team being led by interim head coach Jake Diebler. Unfortunately for Diebler, Ohio State will have to deal with the Wooden Award favorite in what should be a game short on defense.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks for Purdue vs. Ohio State on Sunday, February 18.

Purdue vs Ohio State best odds

Purdue vs Ohio State picks and predictions

In a year of college basketball where top teams are dropping to unranked opponents like flies, the Purdue Boilermakers look like one of the few teams with a real chance of winning the NCAA Tournament. Matt Painter’s team currently sits neck and neck with UConn in the March Madness odds and doesn’t look like any team in the Big Ten will truly challenge them.

It certainly won’t be the Ohio State Buckeyes, who are in disarray having gone 2-9 in its last 11 before Chris Holtmann was fired. Despite the struggles, there is talent on this team, even if it hasn’t shown up consistently in Big Ten play, where Ohio State is just 4-10.

The combination of Purdue’s fierce offense, Ohio State’s pitiful defense, and the Buckeyes scoring talent, should put the Over on a path to hitting. The game total is at 146 and the Boilermakers have only hit the Under on three games all season with a total lower than 147.5.

To get Over 146 though, Ohio State’s offense will need to do its part, and it has at times throughout the season. The Buckeyes are averaging 74.4 points per game and rank 42nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and 39th in OBPR, per Evan Miyakawa. 

Led by the trio of Bruce Thornton, Roddy Gayle Jr., and Jamison Battle, Ohio State has shot a respectable 44.5% from the floor, 50.4% from two, 33.9% from three, and 76.2% from the free throw line this season.

Those three have combined for 43.7 points per game and all offer a different flavor of offense. It will help that with Purdue’s offense scoring so much, its defense is seeing 63 shots against it per game, a Top-30 mark in the country.

The biggest mismatch should be Battle with his size at 6-foot-7 and his shooting stroke, he’s hitting 43% of his threes this season and leads the Buckeyes with 2.6 made threes per game. Both Thornton and Gayle offer explosive athleticism with Thornton being a more diverse shooter and Gayle more of a slasher.

However, the offensive talent the Buckeyes possess hasn’t translated on the defensive end where Ohio State is giving up 69.7 points per game and 75.4 points per game against Big Ten teams. This defense has been the biggest issue for Ohio State all season and is a big reason why Holtmann is gone.

The Buckeyes are 119th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 11th in the Big Ten in DBPR. It’s a defense that has been gashed by 3-point shooters, allowing opponents to hit 35.9% from deep and that’s bad news with the way this Boilermakers offense is built.

Led by last year’s Wooden Award winner, Zach Edey, Purdue is scoring 85 points per game, seventh most in the country, and ranks second in both adjusted offensive efficiency and OBPR. The 7-foot-4 Edey is putting up 23.3 points per game and ranks first in the country in OBPR, MVP score, and indispensability. He’s a monster in the paint that defenses have to focus on.

That opens things up for Purdue’s trio of guards with Lance Jones, Braden Smith, and Fletcher Loyer all scoring double-digit points per game. Each of them is shooting at least 3.0 threes per game with Smith and Loyer both hitting over 42.5% of them. When the Buckeyes are trying to stop Edey, those three guards can take advantage of Ohio State’s poor 3-point defense.

As a team, Purdue ranks 18th in the country in shooting percentage (49.1%), 66th in 2-point percentage (54%), and third in 3-point percentage (40.3%). With Edey and the guards around him, the Boilermakers should light up the scoreboard against Ohio State.

My best bet: Over 146 (-110 at bet365)

Purdue vs Ohio State same-game parlay

Over 145.5

Braden Smith Over 13.5 points

Bruce Thornton Over 14.5 points

+350 at bet365

What has helped Purdue instill confidence in its fans this season is the improved guard play, particularly with Braden Smith. The sophomore has taken his game up a notch in his second season, averaging 12.8 points per game and shooting 43.8% from three.

Against the Buckeyes, he’s got the 3-point consistency to take advantage of Ohio State’s perimeter defense while continuing to build on his impressive recent stretch of games. Over his last five games, he’s scored 16+ points four times and has gone Over this number in 10 of 25 games this season.

Trying to slow Smith down will be Bruce Thornton, Ohio State’s leading scorer, but rather than try to stop Smith and this Purdue offense, Thornton’s best bet is to try and keep pace with it. He’s scoring 15.8 points per game this season and is coming off 18- and 24-point performances in his last two games. On the season, he’s scored 15+ points 12 times in 25 games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Purdue vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis

Between Purdue being one of the best teams in the country and Ohio State firing head coach Chris Holtmann earlier this week, most books opened with Purdue as 7.5 to 8.5-point favorites. As tip-off approaches the line continues to shift with Purdue now up to -8.5 and -9. 

Purdue is 14-9-2 ATS this season but just 7-6 in Big Ten play, but Ohio State has been among the worst teams ATS in the country. The Buckeyes are just 9-15-1 and 4-10 ATS in the Big Ten.

With Purdue’s offensive dominance this season, the game total opened as high as 146.5 with most books now there as tip-off approaches. The Boilermakers are 17-8 betting the Over this season and Ohio State is 14-11.

Purdue vs Ohio State betting trend to know

Purdue has gone Over the total in 21 of its last 33 games (+7.80 units / 22% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Ohio State.

Purdue vs Ohio State game info

Purdue vs Ohio State key injuries

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