The Alabama Crimson Tide face off against the North Carolina Tar Heels in the SEC/ACC Challenge on Wednesday night.
The total for this game is sitting at a whopping 175, which is why my Alabama vs. North Carolina predictions are betting on plenty of points from Crimson Tide forward Grant Nelson. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this marquee matchup on December 4.
Alabama vs North Carolina prediction
My best bet
Grant Nelson Over 14.5 points (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Both schools rank in the Top 6 in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom and are in the Top 10 for adjusted tempo. They've also struggled on defense with the Alabama Crimson Tide surrendering 85.4 points per game in their previous five contests and the North Carolina Tar Heels allowing 89.7 ppg in their last three.
All signs point to a shootout here, but with how sky-high this total is, I'm wary of betting the Over. Instead, I'll pull the trigger on a player prop that I really like; the Over 14.5 points for Alabama big man Grant Nelson.
These teams faced off in the Sweet 16 last season with the Tide winning in an 89-87 thriller. Nelson was the best player on the floor in that contest, scoring 24 points with 12 boards and five blocks in 36 minutes.
This year, the Tar Heels have the same backcourt that they did in March, but they're significantly weaker in the front court after saying goodbye to Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram. Jae'Lyn Withers and Jalen Washington have been anchoring the middle for UNC but neither is a particularly good post-up defender or rim protector.
Nelson is coming off a quiet seven-point performance against Oregon but the 6-foot-11 forward dropped 17 points in his previous game and scored more than 20 points in two other contests this season.
Alabama vs North Carolina same-game parlay
Grant Nelson Over 14.5 points
Mark Sears Over 2.5 made threes
Elliot Cadeau 5+ assists
Mark Sears leads Bama with 16.0 ppg but is shooting just 35% from the field and 29% from the arc. Considering that the senior guard averaged 21.5 ppg on 51/44/86 shooting splits last season, expect positive regression. Especially his shooting from deep against a Tar Heels squad that allows high-quality threes at one of the worst rates in the country per ShotQualityBets.
Since the Tide will also likely give up plenty of points, UNC point guard Elliot Cadeau should rack up plenty of assists. The sophomore point guard is averaging 5.9 assists per game and should thrive against an Alabama backcourt that doesn't apply much pressure.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Alabama vs North Carolina odds
Alabama vs North Carolina live odds
Alabama vs North Carolina opening odds
- Spread: Alabama +2 | North Carolina -2
- Moneyline: Alabama +110 | North Carolina -130
- Over/Under: Over 176.5 | Under 176.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Alabama vs North Carolina betting trend to know
Alabama has hit the first half Over in 12 of their last 15 away games (+8.70 Units / 51% ROI) while the Tar Heels have cashed the first half Over in 17 of their previous 21 games at home (+12.50 Units / 52% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. North Carolina.
How to watch Alabama vs North Carolina
| Location: | Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Alabama vs North Carolina key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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