Purdue vs Penn State Big Ten Tournament Picks and Predictions: Boilermaker Blowout Looms

The Penn State Nittany Lions try on Cinderella’s glass slipper in Round 3 of the Big Ten tournament, taking on the Purdue Boilermakers inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse Friday night.

Penn State knocked off Minnesota in the tournament opener and then stunned Ohio State in Round 2 on Thursday, setting up this meeting with the Boilermakers who earned a two-round bye and haven’t played since March 5. These two schools clashed only once in Big Ten competition, with Purdue winning 74-67 inside the Bryce Jordan Center on January 8.

Check out our free college basketball picks and predictions for Penn State vs. Purdue on March 11.

Purdue vs Penn State odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Purdue opened as low as -8.5 and has been bet up as big as -10.5 as of Friday afternoon. The total has also moved, opening at 136.5 and slimming to 134 points.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off, and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Purdue vs Penn State predictions

• Prediction: Purdue -10.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 134 (-110)
• Best bet: Purdue double result 1H/2H (-250)

Predictions made on 3/11/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Purdue vs Penn State game info

• Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Friday, March 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BTN

Purdue vs Penn State betting preview

Injuries

Purdue: None.
Penn State: None.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 40-12-1 in Boilermakers’ last 53 neutral-site games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Purdue vs. Penn State.

Purdue vs Penn State picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Give credit to Micah Shrewsberry’s men. This experienced team isn’t ready to pack up the 2021-22 season just yet but runs into a tall task and his former mentor in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. Shrewsberry, in his first year at PSU, is a former Purdue assistant under Matt Painter. 

Penn State was able to take advantage of a dinged-up Ohio State squad that backed into the postseason playing poor basketball. Now, PSU faces the premier offense in the conference with the Boilermakers boasting a deep team with four guys scoring over 11 points per game and seven averaging five or more. 

The Nittany Lions would have their work cut out for them in a regular meeting with Purdue but find themselves playing their third straight game in three days, and Shrewsberry had to lean hard on his starters to rally against the Buckeyes in the second half Thursday.

Getting stops will be tough enough for Penn State, considering Purdue owns the third-highest effective field goal rate in the land (57.6%). But even if the Nittany Lions do force a misfire, they have to battle the Boilermakers on the boards, which is not an easy task for an undersized PSU lineup taking on a towering Purdue frontcourt. The Boilermakers rank No. 2 in rebound rate in the country and snatch 9.5 offensive boards per outing, owning a rebound percentage of 33.5% on the offensive glass (14th highest).

That punishment inside will eventually break Penn State and open the flood gates in the final 20 minutes of action. This spread opened Boilermakers -8.5 and while we’re not crazy about laying double figures, Purdue has the offensive pop to put this spread to bed.

Prediction: Purdue -10.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under has shortened up by as many as two points for this Friday finale. The Nittany Lions’ defensive intensity and grinding style of play leans into that early action on the Under, but the Boilermakers are potent enough to do the lion’s share of the scoring for Over backers.

As mentioned, we expect Purdue to have its way inside against PSU, which means second-chance scoring and eventually plenty of trips to the foul line. The Boilermakers draw an average of 19.1 personal fouls per game (33rd), which translates to almost 21 free-throw attempts.

As a team, they shoot better than 70% from the charity stripe and will see plenty of time at the line against an exhausted Nittany Lions squad: scoring with the clock stopped. Penn State doesn’t usually allow many points off free throws but sent Ohio State to the line 20 times last night, with the Buckeyes cashing in 15 of those freebies. 

The Nittany Lions run an active offense, with plenty of movement and screens away from the ball as well as throwing pick-and-roll into the mix in an attempt to isolate mismatches. That can have an impact against the bigger Purdue lineup, having to chase PSU’s speedy guards Jalen Pickett and Sam Sessoms around. How much is left in that offensive motor remains to be seen.

Their lone matchup during the regular season finished with 141 points – Over that total of 138 points – and tonight’s total is down to as low as 134, which is way too short considering how much damage Purdue can do by itself on the scoreboard.

Prediction: Over 134 (-110)

Best bet

As mentioned above, most of us will have missed the best of this number as the spread has spiked an extra two points since opening at Boilermakers -8.5. And while Purdue has a solid shot to cover that inflated line, we’re not crazy about this being a 3-plus possession point spread.

The outright odds have the Boilermakers as pricy -600 moneyline chalk which I don’t think appeals to anyone but the folks who like to string huge moneyline favorites together in 10-team parlays. Yuck.

What we can do, however, is look to the double-result odds (first/second half) with the Boilermakers to win both halves at -250. Purdue boasts the seventh-best first-half offense in the country, averaging 39.2 points in the opening 20 minutes. It continues to pour it on in the second half, putting up 40.2 2H points per game.  

If Painter’s guys can “Boiler Up” early on, there might not be much left of Penn State in the second half.

Pick: Purdue double result (1H/2H) -250

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