Purdue vs Rutgers Odds, Picks and Predictions: Edey Chairs the Boards

The Big Ten regular-season champions could do their conference a favor today and lay down against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, boosting Rutgers into a better March Madness seed. Of course, the Purdue Boilermakers will not do that. In fact, expect anything but a lazy Purdue showing this afternoon, despite the early tip. It knows better from first-hand experience.

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Rutgers vs. Purdue on March 10, with tip set for 12:00 ET.

Purdue vs Rutgers best odds

Purdue vs Rutgers picks and predictions

Purdue center Zach Edey was clearly the best player in the Big Ten this year and arguably the best player in the country. At 7-foot-4, he is a unique on-court presence but one that will need his teammates to help produce in the coming weeks. Post players need someone to get them the ball in tournament play, and that can prove a critical characteristic all too often.

It should not be too much of a concern today against Rutgers, simply because the Knights are not quite good enough to dictate terms like that.

They do, all that said, have the best defense in the Big Ten, per Ken Pomeroy, and one that makes life difficult for opposing players near the rim. Conference opponents shot only 46.9% against Rutgers this season, No. 2 in the Big Ten.

Edey fared better than that when they met on Jan. 2, hitting 6-of-10 shots for 19 points in 28 minutes, but the Boilermakers still lost, 65-64, at home. Rest assured, Purdue will not take the Knights lightly.

But let’s focus on Edey. His points prop is set at 20.5 points, with the Over juiced a bit. He cracked that total in nine of 20 conference games this year. His rebounding prop, meanwhile, is set at 11.5 and again with the Over juiced a bit. Not only did Edey top that mark 12 times in Big Ten play, he reached 11 in another three, including against Rutgers.

This afternoon should be ripe for Edey to pull in at least 12 rebounds, more ripe than usual. As already mentioned, Rutgers limits its opponent’s two-point shooting percentage. Missed shots lead to, hold on, let’s check Taurean Prince’s definition … yep, missed shots lead to rebounds. 

For every shot Purdue misses today, Rutgers should miss more. The Knights had the worst effective field goal percentage and worst two-point shooting percentage in the Big Ten, the latter coming in at a paltry 46.5%. Yet, Rutgers does not chuck many threes, taking them at a lesser share than all but two other conference teams. The vast majority of Knights points come on twos, even if they are terrible at shooting them.

Plenty of bricks will be laid today to open the action in Chicago. At 7-foot-4, Edey should gather at least a dozen of them.

My best bet: Zach Edey Over 11.5 rebounds (-127 at Caesars)

Purdue vs Rutgers spread analysis

For as good as Purdue is, it’s pretty bad against the spread. The Boilermakers are 12-17-2 ATS on the season and went 8-10-2 in Big Ten play, including 0-3 ATS in their last three and 1-5 in their last six.

That alone may scare most off considering Purdue at -6.5 today.

Rutgers has struggled since losing forward Mawot Mag to injury, going just 2-6-1 ATS since that Feb. 4 injury. Of course, one of those ATS wins came as a 2-point underdog yesterday against Michigan.

How did the Knights limit Wolverines’ big man Hunter Dickinson? The technical term is that they didn’t, giving up 24 points on 8-of-17 shooting to him. They only advanced because no one else in a Michigan uniform made more than three field goals.

Purdue vs Rutgers Over/Under analysis

Since losing Mag, Rutgers has hit the Under in seven of nine games, more a reflection of losing his efficiency than anything. At 6-foot-7, the power forward made nearly 56% of his inside shots. Without that, the Knights offense has struggled mightily.

Typing this in the middle of the night — noon tips demand such — team totals are not yet available to be bet, but a total of 128 with this spread of 6.5 should set the Rutgers’ team total at about 61 points.

First of all, the Knights have fallen short of 61 points in six of their nine games without Mag, a seventh coming in at an astounding 62 points. More concerning, Rutgers fell short of its team total in eight of those nine games. Seven of those eight were short by multiple buckets. The only time the Knights’ offense exceeded expectations was at Minnesota, ya know, the worst defense in the Big Ten.

Even three outright wins in this stretch included Rutgers falling short of its share of the total, the driving force toward seven of its last nine games falling Under their pregame totals.

Purdue vs Rutgers betting trend to know

Purdue is 5-0 outright at neutral sites this season, as well as 7-3 on the road. Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Rutgers.

Purdue vs Rutgers game info

Purdue vs Rutgers key injuries

Pages related to this topic