Purdue vs Wisconsin Odds, Picks and Predictions: Boilermakers Too Hot for Badgers to Handle

The No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers look to clinch the Big Ten title as they face off against Wisconsin Badgers on Thursday night.

Despite sitting at the top of the conference standings, the Boilermakers have dropped four of their last six games and might not find it easy to win in Madison against a Badgers team fighting for its March Madness life.

College basketball betting odds hit the board with the Boilermakers installed as 4-point road favorites and the Over/Under at 127.5. Here are my best free Purdue vs. Wisconsin college basketball picks and predictions for March 2. 

Purdue vs Wisconsin best odds

Purdue vs Wisconsin picks and predictions

It might be tough to consider backing the Boilermakers on the road given how they've performed over the last few weeks, but all the teams they lost to are better than Wisconsin. 

The Boilermakers' recent struggles mean that you're getting a decent line against a Wisconsin team that has struggled all season and doesn't match up well against them.

The Badgers have been defending well in most areas of the floor, but they've struggled in the paint where Wooden Award favorite Zach Edey and the Boilermakers excel. Wisconsin is allowing opponents to shoot 50.3% from inside the arc while Purdue has a 53.9 2PT%.

The Boilermakers also dominate the glass with the highest rebound rate (58.6%) in the country while the Badgers are outside the Top 300 with a rebound rate of just 47%.

In addition, Purdue sends opponents to the free throw line at the lowest rate in the country. That's bad news for a Wisconsin side that does a poor job of drawing shooting fouls and ranks 339th in the country in free throw attempts per offensive play.

Even when they do get to the charity stripe, the Badgers won't be able to make them pay since they rank at the bottom of the conference with a 63.5 FT% in Big Ten action.

Another factor to consider is that point guard Chucky Hepburn, who leads Wisconsin in points (12.1) and assists (3.0) per game, will be a game-time decision after suffering a knee injury. Wisconsin coach Greg Gard uses a short rotation and if Hepburn is unable to play sophomore, Kamari McGee, who averages just 7.1 minutes per game, will start. 

My best bet: Purdue -4 (-110 at bet365)

Purdue vs Wisconsin spread analysis

The Boilermakers have the best record in the conference at 13-5 and are 21-5 overall. However, they're suddenly looking very vulnerable after going 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six games. They're coming off a 79-71 loss at home to Indiana where they shot just 35% from the floor and allowed the Hoosiers to shoot 51%. 

That's very unusual for Purdue, one of just three schools in the country to rank in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency (11th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (19th) according to KenPom.

Edey is the focal point of Purdue's offense and even with the Boilermakers coming up short in recent weeks, he's been consistently dominating inside. The 7-foot-4, 305-pound center leads all Power Six Conference players in points (22.3) and rebounds (12.9) per game while shooting 61.2% from the field. 

After a tough overtime loss to Michigan at home on Sunday, the Badgers are on the bubble and desperately need a win here if they want to make the Field of 68.

Wisconsin is 4-4 SU and 4-3-1 ATS in its last eight games although that's a significant improvement from earlier in the season when it was at the bottom of the Big Ten standings and failed to cover the spread in 10 straight games. 

This is a typical Greg Gard team that plays at a methodical pace, limits turnovers, and defends well. They're 23rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite doing a poor job of contesting shots at the rim.

However, unlike recent Wisconsin teams, this year's version shoots poorly and lacks a go-to scorer like Johnny Davis last season. It ranks just 148th in adjusted offensive efficiency and are last in the Big Ten with a 40.8 FG% in conference play. 

Purdue vs Wisconsin Over/Under analysis

We're seeing an extremely low total of 127.5 today due to the solid defenses, shaky shooting, and sluggish tempos of both sides. 

 The Boilermakers are 16th in the country in scoring defense against Div 1 foes (62.2 ppg) with that number ticking up to just 63.9 ppg in Big Ten play. 

The Badgers are 26th in scoring defense (63.7 ppg) with that number sitting at 65.2 ppg against conference foes. On the other end of the floor, the Badgers are just 314th in the country with a 41.5 FG%.

Although the Boilermakers have a more respectable 45.9 FG% that number is boosted by Edey and his supporting cast hasn't been anywhere near as efficient. The rest of his team has a pathetic 41 FG% this season while shooting just 25.6% from long range over the last four games. 

The Boilermakers are 332nd in the country in average length of possession (19.2 seconds) while the Badgers rank 349th (19.7 seconds). With the tendency of neither backcourt to apply pressure, both sides will use plenty of time to run their offense.

Purdue vs Wisconsin betting trend to know

The Badgers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Wisconsin.

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