It’s time to renew a rivalry out west as the Gonzaga Bulldogs (21-7, 12-3 WCC) host the Saint Mary’s Gaels (24-4, 14-1 WCC) on Saturday night at the Kennel.
This rivalry has tended to be low-scoring lately with the Under cashing in five straight meetings.
Read why I’m betting on another Under with my college basketball picks and Saint Mary’s vs. Gonzaga predictions on Saturday, February 22.
Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga prediction
My best bet
Under 142.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s senior night at the Kennel, where the Gonzaga Bulldogs will honor six seniors playing their last game in front of a raucous home crowd.
Their opponent, the Saint Mary’s Gaels, won a tight 62-58 game in Moraga the first time these teams faced off this season. With a two-game lead in the conference standings, the Gaels can clinch at least a share of the regular season title with a victory on Saturday.
This should be a tense environment for a few reasons: it’s a heated rivalry, Gonzaga is fighting to avoid elimination, it’s Senior Night, and Saint Mary’s can clinch with a win. With so much on the line, I’m betting on a tight, hard-fought contest — which isn’t out of the norm when these two schools square off.
Randy Bennett and Mark Few are two of the best coaches in the sport, more like wizards on the hardcourt than simple ball coaches. They’ve gone tit-for-tat in this rivalry lately, resulting in five straight Unders coming through since March of 2023.
I’ve been vocal in my preview of these two teams dating back for some time that one way to bother Saint Mary’s is with full-court pressure. We saw that play out in the second half of the first meeting, where Gonzaga was repeatedly beaten down low in the first half but responded well to Few’s adjustments and was in position to pull out the victory in crunch time before crumbling at the free throw line.
Expect more full-court pressure in the rematch, throwing the Gaels off balance at points. Saint Mary’s rarely sees this level of length and athleticism, so it’ll naturally take an adjustment period that slows down the game.
Few’s been trotting out a deeper rotation than normal with Italian frosh Emmanuel Innocenti receiving increased playing time at guard. The Zags are now able to put more pressure on opposing ballhandlers and the results speak for themselves — after struggling defensively for much of the year, the Zags rank 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency since the start of February (per BartTorvik).
Putting pressure on Saint Mary’s terrific guard play led by Augustas Marciulionis is key as the Gaels thrive on dribble penetration. Both teams have plenty of size down low, which should mitigate each other, and every possession will be a fight.
Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga same-game parlay (SGP)
Saint Mary's +6.5
Under 142.5
This line opened at -4.5 before quickly moving to -5.5 and then eventually -6.5 at some locations. I’d be on board with the home team at the opening number, but the current number is too wide for me to do anything other than sap up the points with the underdog.
Gonzaga has plenty of reason to be motivated on Senior Night, but the Zags have also underplayed their metrics for much of this season and just haven’t quite clicked. Saint Mary’s has been firing on all cylinders for a long time now and it’s hard to envision a Bennett team getting blown off the floor.
The Gaels are one of the sport’s best defensive teams, ranking 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom). They’re also terrific at crashing the boards, ranking fourth in rebounding percentage (56.6%). Every possession is at a premium.
Gonzaga is a talented team and I still think its best days are ahead. Still, the Bulldogs have been putrid at covering spreads (11-17 ATS) and are 0-5 ATS in their last five games lined within 10 points.
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Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga odds
Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga live odds
Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga opening odds
- Spread: Saint Mary’s +6.5 (-110) | Gonzaga -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Saint Mary’s +220 | Gonzaga -270
- Over/Under: Over 142.5 (-110) | Under 142.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga betting trend to know
These teams are 0-5 O/U in the last five meetings with one another. Find more college basketball betting trends for Saint Mary’s vs. Gonzaga.
How to watch Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga
| Location | McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, WA |
| Date | Saturday, 2-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Check local listings |
Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga key injuries
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