South Alabama vs Louisiana Odds, Picks and Predictions: Value Lies With Jaguars in Conference Rivalry

South Alabama and Louisiana will meet up in Lafayette in a Sun Belt battle that seemingly means much more to one team than the other.

The Ragin' Cajuns are already locked into a top-four spot and double-bye in the conference tournament. They arrive as winners of two of their last three and can do nothing to improve their postseason standing in this regular season game.

On the other hand, South Alabama has a ton to play for.

With a win this evening, the Jaguars can improve their seed in the Sun Belt tournament. South Alabama is also tied for the second-longest win streak in the conference as winners of five straight.

Find out my best for tonight in our free college basketball picks and predictions for South Alabama vs. Louisiana on February 24. 

South Alabama vs Louisiana best odds

South Alabama vs Louisiana picks and predictions

There are a few places on the court where the South Alabama Jaguars should have some edges tonight.

The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns are used to winning with high-scoring efforts and big-time displays of offense. Unfortunately for them, they're about to go up against a pretty tough defense. 

South Alabama allows only 0.96 points per possession, which ranks above the national average. When you get into the specifics of the matchup, they should be able to eliminate much of Lafayette's spot-up offense. The Cajuns are heavily-reliant there and get nearly 25% of their offense in those situations. 

Defending it, however, is the strength of the South Alabama defense, as the Jaguars rank in the Top-5% of college basketball in spot-up shot defense. That safely qualifies them as an elite defense, allowing just 37% shooting from the field.

To make matters worse for the Cajuns, center Kevin Samuel is back in the fold for the Jaguars. The big man wasn't available the first time these two schools met, and South Alabama still nearly won.

On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars should be able to get just enough offense as the Cajuns really struggle to defend spot-up shooters. They rank near the bottom of college basketball and are among the worst in the conference.

It's a drastic swing from one side of the ball to the other, and it could end up deciding this matchup. Back South Alabama tonight as the matchup heavily favors the Jags. 

My best bet: South Alabama +4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

South Alabama vs Louisiana spread analysis

This game seems destined to come down to the last possession, and with that in mind, give me the free points.

Not only are the Jaguars on a winning streak, but they've also been a machine against the spread over the last month or so. South Alabama has successfully covered in eight of its previous nine games and does so by a wide margin in most games.

This number would be much closer if it wasn't for a short turnaround for South Alabama. The Jags played just two days ago on Wednesday, so that's something to consider for this matchup. 

South Alabama vs Louisiana Over/Under analysis

My projections have this one at 145, which is just a point lower than the widely available total of 146. While I touched on Lafayette's primary offense being shut off, the Ragin' Cajuns can succeed in other places on the floor.

The Over is 4-1 in both South Alabama's last five road games and Louisiana-Lafayette's last five home games. The Over is also 4-1 in the Ragin' Cajuns' last five games against a team with a losing road record.

South Alabama vs Louisiana betting trend to know

The road team is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between these schools. Find more college basketball betting trends for South Alabama vs. Louisiana.

South Alabama vs Louisiana game info

South Alabama vs Louisiana key injuries

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