One of the most intriguing matchups in the early college basketball season will take place on Saturday night with the No. 9 Arizona Wildcats hosting the No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers.
Both teams are 9-1 but what makes this matchup particularly interesting is that it features the Wildcats' highest-scoring offense in the country facing off against the top-rated defense in the Vols.
NCAA basketball odds opened with the Wildcats as slim 2-point home faves before growing to -3.5. Here are my best free Tennessee vs. Arizona college basketball picks and predictions for December 16.
Tennessee vs Arizona best odds
Tennessee vs Arizona picks and predictions
It's so tough to handicap this game, because while these teams are built differently, they've had an equal amount of success. Both teams are 9-1 with their lone defeats bizarrely coming by double-digits against foes they were expected to easily beat. Both schools also have identical 3-1 records against Quadrant 1 foes and both have been nearly unstoppable at what they do best.
The Wildcats lead the country in offensive efficiency and were able to score 89 points on neutral ground against a highly-rated defensive school in Indiana. The Volunteers lead the nation in defensive efficiency and allowed just 50 points versus a highly-rated offensive school in Kansas.
On the other side of the floor, there isn't much of a discrepancy either, with the Vols 48th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and the Wildcats 64th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Other categories I often use to find an edge between closely-matched sides are also a wash, since both teams foul and turn the ball over at similar rates while also having virtually identical free-throw percentages.
With all that in mind, home-court advantage becomes the biggest factor tonight. We all know how stark home/away splits can be at the college level, and McKale Center is one of the toughest venues to travel to.
It also doesn't help the Knoxville-based Vols that this contest won't tip until 10:30 p.m. ET. Add in the size advantage that the Wildcats have and I'm leaning toward the home side on the spread.
My best bet: Arizona -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Tennessee vs Arizona spread analysis
Tennessee is coming off a 56-53 win against Maryland where the Volunteers jumped out to a 34-17 halftime lead and held on for a close victory.
The Vols shot a pathetic 29% from the floor in that contest but also held the Terrapins to 33% shooting — including just 2-24 from long range. They failed to cover the 5.5-point spread in that contest but they've still gone 6-2 ATS while riding an eight-game winning streak.
The Vols have been dominant on defense, where they hold opponents to a 32.7 field goal percentage and rank third in the country in opponent turnover rate.
However, things haven't looked so great on offense where they sit outside the Top 300 with a 40.1 FG%. Despite having five players averaging double digits in points, Tennessee lacks a true go-to scorer or shot-creator.
Arizona is fresh off a 99-61 beatdown of Texas A&M–Corpus Christi on Tuesday. Point guard Kerr Kriisa, who leads the Pac-12 with 6.9 assists per game, left that contest early in the first quarter with a non-covid illness but is expected to play tonight.
The Wildcats are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games, but that has to do with some daunting spreads put in front of them since they had six double-digit wins during that span — including an 89-75 win against No. 14 Indiana.
The Wildcats have plenty of size in their frontcourt with 7-foot center Oumar Ballo and 6-foot-11 power forward Azuolas Tubelis combining for 38.3 points and 18 rebounds per game.
The Wildcats lead the country with a 54.7 FG% and have been solid on defense where they limit foes to 40.3% shooting.
Tennessee vs Arizona Over/Under analysis
As might be expected for two teams with completely different styles, the total is very tough to handicap.
The Wildcats play at the fourth-fastest tempo in the country according to KenPom. That blazing pace combined with their highly efficient offense has led to some high-scoring contests with their last 19 games going 13-6 O/U.
Meanwhile, the Vols are 176th in adjusted tempo and their lockdown defense and poor shooting have led to some extremely low-scoring games with the Under cashing in six of their last eight.
There are a couple of reasons why I think that the Wildcats might be able to have a bit more offensive success than the majority of teams that face Tennessee. The Wildcats emphasize ball movement over isolation and they are not reliant on the three-ball.
The Vols hold opponents to an incredible 20.2 3PT%, but while the Wildcats can knock down shots from deep, they do most of their damage inside, where they shoot 63% from two-point range.
Tennessee vs Arizona betting trend to know
The Over is 12-5 in Arizona's last 17 home games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs. Arizona.
Tennessee vs Arizona game info
| Location: | McKale Center, Tuscon, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, December 17, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
