The No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers and No. 21 LSU Tigers will do battle in the best game on Saturday's slate. Tennessee ground out an overtime win against Ole Miss following a tough five-point loss on the road to then-No. 19 Alabama. LSU similarly bounced back on Tuesday with a win against No. 16 Kentucky following a road loss to No. 11 Auburn.
Continue reading for our free college basketball picks and predictions for Tennessee vs. LSU on Saturday, January 7th for more.
Tennessee vs LSU odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
LSU opened as 3.5-point favorites and moved as low as 1.5 point favorites, prior to settling at the current number of -2. The total started at a relatively low 132 and has since moved to 137.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Tennessee vs LSU predictions
Predictions made on 1/8/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Tennessee vs LSU game info
• Location: Pete Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, LA
• Date: Saturday, January 8, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Tennessee at LSU betting preview
Injuries
Tennessee: No injuries to report.
LSU: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
LSU is 11-3 against the spread, tied for the seventh-best percentage in the nation. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tennessee vs. LSU.
Tennessee vs LSU picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Saturday's matchup between Tennessee and LSU will feature the nation's No. 1 and No. 2 ranked defenses, according to KenPom. Coincidentally, the two teams have achieved their defenses through identical means.
Both teams emphasize defending the three most valuable shots in basketball: at the rim, behind the perimeter, and in transition. But unlike other schemes, it isn't necessarily about denying those shots, it's about coaxing teams into taking them and then defending them well. Both teams accomplish this by marrying a mix of speed and athleticism with scheme execution.
| Shot Type | TENN DEF | LSU DEF |
|---|---|---|
| Rim shot % | 260 | 108 |
| Rim FG % | 28 | 18 |
| 2-point shot % | 31 | 6 |
| 2-point FG% | 102 | 2 |
| 3-point shot % | 248 | 352 |
| 3-point FG% | 114 | 10 |
| Transition shot % | 147 | 193 |
| Transition eFG% | 91 | 1 |
Tennessee ranks 260th at the rim, 248th behind the perimeter, and 147th in transition. LSU ranks 108th at the rim, 352nd at the perimeter, and 193rd in transition.
Yet despite this, Tennessee has the 28th lowest field goal percentage allowed at the rim, 114th lowest 3-point percentage allowed, and 91st lowest effective field goal percentage in transition. LSU is much higher in this regard, ranking 18th, 10th, and first, respectively.
By aggressively closing out on the perimeter, a lot of teams are coaxed into passing the ball around the perimeter until a shot presents itself. But with each pass comes the danger of turning over the ball. It should come as no surprise then that Tennessee ranks 14th in forcing turnovers and LSU ranks fifth.
So, we've established how both teams play defense similarly, but how does that match up to how each team plays offensively?
| Shot Type | TENN OFF | LSU OFF |
|---|---|---|
| Rim shot % | 184 | 39 |
| Rim FG % | 124 | 151 |
| 2-point shot % | 266 | 247 |
| 2-point FG% | 211 | 283 |
| 3-point shot % | 72 | 246 |
| 3-point FG% | 235 | 268 |
| Transition shot % | 136 | 65 |
| Transition eFG% | 255 | 102 |
When we bring in the shot mix and effectiveness of each team's offense against the other team's defense, there is one clear story to tell here: Tennessee is going to shoot a lot of threes and it’s not going to find a lot of success doing so. The Vols rank 235rd in 3-point percentage at 32.5%, and as mentioned before LSU is extremely good at defending them (10th).
When we look at Tennessee's toughest challenges in terms of perimeter defense, it needed overtime to beat Ole Miss (45th in 3-point percentage allowed), lost to Alabama (64th), lost to Texas Tech (86th), and lost to Villanova (99th). The Vols shot 24.4% from three across those four games, which account for all three of their losses and an overtime scare at home against a team that ranks 98th in KenPom.
Prediction: LSU -2 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Yes, it's incredibly cliche to hit the Under in a game featuring the two best defenses in the nation, but it's for good reason. If Tennessee is going to have another predictably poor performance from beyond the arc, there really isn't a great path to it scoring enough elsewhere.
The Vols could possibly try to force it inside where LSU is softest in terms of effectiveness but those possessions take time to develop, requiring Tennessee to frequently swing the ball and look for an entry.
Both teams also aren't the type to send teams to the line overly often, with Tennessee ranking 89th in sending teams to the line and LSU ranking 156th.
Prediction: Under 137 (-110)
Best bet
Tennessee is undeniably a great team, but LSU is quite simply not the team that it’s built to beat. Matchup-wise, this is a nightmare for the Volunteers, and they'll have a few opportunities in the coming weeks to pick up key wins and adjust their approach before LSU pays a visit later this month.
Pick: LSU -2 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed our Tennessee vs. LSU picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
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