UAB travels west on Sunday night to face off with Santa Clara in an NIT second-round contest from Leavey Center.
The Blazers mounted a comeback to defeat Saint Joseph's in the first round despite trailing by multiple baskets for much of the second half. They’ll need to perform better against a Broncos team that lights up the scoreboard from deep.
Our UAB vs. Santa Clara predictions and college basketball picks for Sunday, March 23 dive into the matchup and break down why this one could get out of hand for the visiting team.
Who will win UAB vs Santa Clara?
Santa Clara is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in college basketball, and has superior defensive efficiency. The Broncos also rebound extremely well at the defensive end, which will negate UAB’s ability to get the second-chance opportunities its offensive thrives on.
UAB vs Santa Clara prediction
My best bet: Santa Clara -6.5 (-115 at bet365)
In a game where both teams like to play at a high tempo, a disparity in perimeter shooting can often be the difference. And we have that in spades in the matchup between the Santa Clara Broncos and the UAB Blazers.
The Broncos rank Top 15 in accuracy from long range, connecting at a 38.3% clip. They also take 3-point shots at a very high rate, with nearly 47% of their attempts from the floor coming behind the arc.
That should worry the Blazers, especially when considering the spread is only 6.5 points. UAB doesn’t allow a high rate of 3-point shots comparatively to most schools, but opponents shoot 35% against them, which is 250th in college basketball.
And Santa Clara does a terrific job of generating high-quality chances. They rank eighth nationally in offensive spacing per ShotQuality, 10th overall in shot selection, and 29th in open 3-point rate. Conversely, UAB ranks outside the Top 150 in all three metrics. That creates a nightmare for the Blazers.
The Broncos have four different players who attempt at least two outside shots on average per game who also shoot at least 37% from downtown. They also have four players who have attempted at least 139 treys, with three of those players shooting 38.9% or better from outside the arc. And as a team, they made 16 of 27 of their long-range efforts in the first-round win over UC Riverside.
And while both teams rank Top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency, Santa Clara’s defense has been much better as a whole. The Blazers rely on taking care of the ball and crashing the offensive glass, ranking fifth in offensive rebound rate. But Santa Clara rebounds well and defends the perimeter extremely well, with opponents making less than 31% of their long-range efforts.
UAB doesn’t shoot the ball often from downtown, and when it does the rate of makes is fairly low. UAB also has just one truly dangerous threat from outside in Tyren Moore, who hasn’t played more than 15 minutes in nine of his last 11 games. That means the Santa Clara defense can focus on locking down Tony Toney from long range and crash the glass.
With Santa Clara playing at home in a high-tempo game that should see them getting plenty of chances to fire away, I see the home team enjoying a double-digit lead for large portions of the second half.
UAB vs Santa Clara same-game parlay (SGP)
Santa Clara -6.5
Santa Clara -3.5 1H
Under 167.5
I fully expect Santa Clara to come out firing at home and put UAB’s defense under pressure from the start. The Broncos will want their crowd involved, and few things elicit a response like burying shots from deep early and often.
UAB’s games of late haven’t been hitting the number we have for this game, and I feel it’s a bit inflated due to Santa Clara’s huge win over UC Riverside. UAB’s last five games have seen the Under go 4-1, and while the Over is 4-1 in Santa Clara’s last five, none of those pre-game totals were this high.
I see Santa Clara slowing the game down late to see out a comfortable lead as we creep below the number.
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UAB vs Santa Clara odds
UAB vs Santa Clara live odds
UAB vs Santa Clara opening odds
- Spread: UAB +7 | Santa Clara -7
- Moneyline: UAB +247 | Santa Clara -300
- Over/Under: Over 165 | Under 165
Odds courtesy of bet365
UAB vs Santa Clara betting trend to know
Santa Clara have covered the 1H Spread in 19 of their last 29 games (+11.05 Units / 33% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for UAB vs. Santa Clara.
How to watch UAB vs Santa Clara
| Location | Leavey Center, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
UAB vs Santa Clara key injuries
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