Perhaps the reports of the Kansas Jayhawks’ demise were greatly exaggerated. The Jayhawks are still a Top 25 caliber team, are projected as a five-or six-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and are healthy four-bucket favorites tonight against the Central Florida Knights.
Could it be that one bad night at BYU lowered opinions of the Jayhawks to the point that we now enjoy value? My UCF vs. Kansas predictions and free college basketball picks believe so.
The tip comes at 9:30 ET on Wednesday, March 12.
UCF vs Kansas prediction
Who will win UCF vs Kansas?
Praising the Kansas Jayhawks needs to include some acknowledgment that the Jayhawks were upset three times since Feb. 1. Two of those came on the road, though, and the third upset loss was against Texas Tech, which just may be a darkhorse Final Four contender.
Since laying an egg to open Big 12 play — a one-point loss as a 13.5-point favorite against West Virginia — Kansas has gone 7-1 outright as a favorite of at least three buckets. A road loss at Utah on Feb. 15 should not create enough doubt to bet against rock-chalk tonight.
My best bet: UCF team total Under 71.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Let’s discuss Central Florida’s offensive strengths. The Knights play at the fastest pace in the Big 12, and they are a strong free-throw shooting team, even if they do not take an abundance of free throws. UCF also hoists 3-pointers more often than the average Big 12 team but made only 32.4% of them in conference play, No. 8 in the Big 12.
And that may be the end of Central Florida’s offensive strengths. The Knights rank No. 14 in effective field goal percentage and No. 13 in assists rate. They play fast, but that does not mean they play well.
Let’s discuss Kansas’s defensive strengths, the No. 3 defense in the Big 12 by Ken Pomeroy’s numbers. The Jayhawks force a bounty of turnovers and limit offensive rebounds. Kansas also forces more than 40% of opposing shots to come from deep, making those difficult looks as opponents convert just 30.1% of them, the third-lowest rate in the Big 12.
For further measure, the Jayhawks rarely send opponents to the free-throw line even though they block shots at the third-highest rate in the Big 12.
Get the picture yet?
Emphasize those 3-pointers. Kansas forces opponents to take and miss them. UCF will oblige that. And every missed 3-pointer by a Knight will further doom their half of the scoreboard. As this game gets out of hand, UCF will naturally slow down, a white flag of sorts. Losing its usual tempo will alter the entire offensive approach and not in a productive manner for an offense that struggles so much to start with.
UCF vs Kansas same-game parlay (SGP)
UCF team total Under 71.5
Kansas -10.5
Hunter Dickinson Over 10.5 rebounds
This spread jumped on Wednesday, from -9 to -10.5. As frustrating as it is to get that worse number, let’s trust the move. Again, UCF is going to struggle to score. And to put one last thought into that argument, the Knights had the No. 15 defense in the Big 12, meaning Kansas should put the ball in the hoop plenty. It is always easier to set your defense after your offense made a bucket.
Some of UCF’s defensive struggles stemmed from giving up offensive rebounds on 35.4% of opponents’ misses, the worst rate in the Big 12. No one will be better positioned to take advantage of that than Hunter Dickinson, who has cleared this prop in four of his last six games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
UCF vs Kansas odds
UCF vs Kansas live odds
UCF vs Kansas opening odds
- Spread: UCF +10 | Kansas -10
- Moneyline: UCF +400 | Kansas -550
- Over/Under: Over 155 | Under 155
Odds courtesy of bet365
UCF vs Kansas betting trend to know
UCF is 3-8 against the spread since Feb. 1, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 3.6 points in that stretch, even including the three ATS successes. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCF vs. Kansas.
How to watch UCF vs Kansas
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
UCF vs Kansas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
