Need an appetizer before the Final Four? The semifinals of the College Basketball Crown happen right beforehand, and one of those games pits the UCF Knights (19-16) against the Villanova Wildcats (21-14).
The game tips off at 4:00 pm EST, two hours before Florida and Auburn battle for a berth in the National Championship game.
Check out my UCF vs. Villanova predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, April 5.
Who will win UCF vs Villanova?
The Villanova Wildcats (-170) will survive and advance. Notching a one-point second-round win over USC wasn’t awe-inspiring, but the Wildcats don’t have too many demerits on their resume over the last few months.
That contrasts with the UCF Knights, who had a seven-game losing streak in the Big 12 and haven’t proved that they’ve entirely found their mojo since then, especially without the services of Big 12 leading scorer Keyshawn Hall (18.8 ppg).
UCF vs Villanova prediction
My best bet: Under 156.5 (-110 at bet365)
The College Basketball Crown has seen elevated totals in the betting market. It makes sense — teams are playing looser, running down the court like it’s an All-Star game.
The UCF Knights will certainly want to play that way, ranking 11th in adjusted tempo (KenPom). But will they have a willing dance partner in the Villanova Wildcats?
Playing under interim head coach Mike Nardi, the Wildcats limited Colorado to 64 points in the first round. They crawled to a 60-59 victory over a shorthanded USC team in the second round.
They want to slow the game way down, ranking 352nd in adjusted tempo.
It’s normal for a total to be this high in a UCF game, but the same can most definitely not be said for Villanova.
This is only the second time this season that the Wildcats have featured in a game with a total above 150, the other occurring back on December 11 against Farleigh Dickinson.
Known for its offense more than its defense earlier in the season, Villanova’s outlook has changed a bit lately.
Since February 24, the Wildcats have ranked higher in adjusted defensive efficiency (52nd) than adjusted offensive efficiency (74th).
The Knights are known for their offense, but when will the absence of Keyshawn Hall’s 18.8 ppg come back to bite them?
They excel by getting to the foul line, but Villano has been good at avoiding fouls all year, surrendering just 16.1 free throw attempts per game.
On the flip side, Villanova is a terrific shooting team, especially from 3-point range (39.5%).
UCF is poised, on paper at least, to counteract that, ranking 41st in 3-point field goal defense vs. the average opponent (Haslametrics).
UCF vs Villanova same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 156.5
Villanova 1H -2
1H Under 74.5
Villanova tends to get off to slow-paced starts, hitting the First Half Under in 14 of its last 20 games. Since that correlates with a ‘Nova cover, sign me up for Villanova against the spread in the First Half as well for this SGP.
The Cats have covered the First Half spread in 18 of their last 30 games.
Look for Eric Dixon (23.1 ppg) to get his game going while the rest of the team focuses on controlling the ball, avoiding turnovers, and keeping the pace down.
Through the first two rounds of the Crown, UCF has received contributions from players like Tyler Hendricks (14.5 points, 7.0 rebounds) and Nils Machowski (13 ppg).
Those two combined for just 7.1 ppg before the Crown tipped off, however, and it’s fair to question if their level of production will continue as the tournament goes along.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UCF vs Villanova odds
UCF vs Villanova live odds
UCF vs Villanova opening odds
- Spread: UCF +3.5 (+100) | Villanova -3.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: UCF (+156) | Villanova (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 156.5 (-110) | Under 156.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
UCF vs Villanova betting trend to know
This is just the 11th time in the last five years that a Villanova game has had a total of 147 or higher; the Wildcats are 3-7-1 O/U in those games. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCF vs. Villanova.
How to watch UCF vs Villanova
| Location | MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Saturday, 4-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
UCF vs Villanova key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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