Cooper Flagg was just named AP men's college basketball national Player of the Year, becoming just the fourth freshman in history to win the award.
The Duke Blue Devils do-everything forward is on the fast track to be the first player taken in the upcoming NBA draft.
However, my March Madness picks think his player props might be a bit too high for a showdown against the Houston Cougars.
See why I'm fading Flagg with my favorite Houston vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks on Saturday, April 5.
Cooper Flagg player prop picks
- Best bet
Flagg Under 7.5 rebounds
(+105 at bet365) - SGP pick
Flagg Under 7.5 rebounds
Under 136.5
Duke ML
(+550 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Cooper Flagg best bet
Flagg Under 7.5 rebounds (+105 at bet365)
Cooper Flagg is a stat-stuffer who leads the Duke Blue Devils in points (18.9), rebounds (7.5), assists (4.2), and steals (1.4) per game. That said, the O/U on his numbers looks a tad inflated for a matchup against the Houston Cougars.
Flagg has finished with fewer than eight boards in 15 of his last 21 contests, averaging 6.8 rebounds per game during that span.
Houston is 20th in the country in rebounding rate and will be the most physical team that Flagg has faced this season. The Cougars also rank 360th in adjusted tempo, which will lead to fewer possessions and rebounding opportunities for both sides.
The Cougars are 19th in the country in rebounds allowed per game (31.4), and being able to take the Under 7.5 rebounds for Flagg at plus money is tough to turn down.
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Cooper Flagg same-game parlay
Cooper Flagg Under 7.5 rebounds
Under 136.5
Duke ML
The Cougars can control the. tempo and slow the game down to a crawl. Since a slower pace is a big reason why I'm betting the Under on Flagg's rebounds, it makes sense to parlay that with the Under on the game total.
The Cougars have the No. 1 defense in the country per KenPom and have allowed just 57.1 ppg in regulation this season. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils are fifth in adjusted defense and held Alabama's up-tempo attack to just 65 points on 35% shooting in the Elite Eight.
Analytics sites are projecting between 129 and 134 points for this game which gives us value with the total at 136.5.
Even in a low-scoring rock fight, Duke should be able to win. Duke's length and strong interior defense will shut down a Houston offense that is just 282nd in 2PT% (48.4%).
On the other end of the floor, points won't come easy for the Blue Devils. But their ability to beat Houston's press defense and knock down tough outside shots, will get the buckets they need to win.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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