Winners of five straight, the Chicago Cubs go for the sweep over the San Diego Padres in the series finale at Wrigley Field on Sunday afternoon.
I look closer at the MLB player props with my Padres vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, April 6, as there are two stopgap starters on the mound.
I’m bullish on Padres star Jackson Merrill taking advantage of this situation and exceeding his total bases prop on the afternoon.
Padres vs Cubs prediction
My Padres vs Cubs best bet: Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 total bases (+104 at Caesars)
Ben Brown will take the mound as the Chicago Cubs go for the sweep.
He’s made one start (and two appearances) this season, most recently allowing three earned runs on six hits and two walks in five innings of work against the Athletics.
Simply put, I’m not a huge fan of Brown’s profile, and this is not a good matchup on paper for the 25-year-old. He relies on the punchout (28.5% K-rate), but those may not be so easily come by against a San Diego Padres lineup famous for avoiding strikeouts (league-low 15% K-rate against RHP).
Brown’s 15% swinging strike rate does support his high strikeout numbers, but it’s a bit surprising that he racks up those numbers with such underwhelming stuff. Thus far in 2025, his 91 Stuff+ ranks 169 out of 185 pitchers to have thrown at least five innings.
The Ward Melville High School product is primarily a two-pitch guy. He prefers throwing his four-seam fastball (53.6%) and his knuckle curve (42.1%) while only sprinkling in the changeup (4.3%).
Filtering through San Diego’s lineup’s pitch type splits, one hitter is poised to capitalize on this matchup — star outfielder Jackson Merrill.
The precocious hitter mashes four-seamers (147 wRC+) and knuckle curves (127 wRC+) alike, and he’s positively obliterated right-handed pitchers (152 wRC+ and .384 wOBA) in his short but notable career.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Padres vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Ben Brown Under 4.5 strikeouts
Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 runs scored
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 total base
San Diego has faced nine starting pitchers this season; only two have recorded 5+ strikeouts. Both were lefties, and one (Chris Sale) is the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner.
Brown’s underlying numbers indicate that he’s a high-strikeout pitcher, sure, but so do a lot of hurlers who try and fail to punch out the Padres. Brown is in and out of the rotation and hasn’t thrown more than 75 pitches in his previous outings, so there’s also a question about his workload.
One integral handicapping factor in this game is that the weather (40 degrees, 6-8 mph winds blowing in from right field) is pitcher-friendly. Neither Brown nor Padres starter Kyle Hart inspires much confidence on paper, but the weather is enough that it diminishes my confidence in either a side or a total.
Instead, let’s stick with Merrill’s props and take him to score a run in addition to notching 2+ total bases. The Cubs only have one left-handed member of the arm barn, so Merrill will likely see a handful of at-bats against right-handed pitching on Sunday.
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Padres vs Cubs odds
Padres vs Cubs live odds
Padres vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +115 | Chicago -140
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-165) | Chicago -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Padres vs Cubs trend
Jackson Merrill has recorded 2+ total bases in three of his last four games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cubs.
How to watch Padres vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Sunday, 4-6-2025 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | SDPA, Marquee |
| Padres starting pitcher | Kyle Hart (2025: 1-0, 3.60 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Ben Brown (2025: 1-1, 5.87 ERA) |
Padres vs Cubs latest injuries
Padres vs Cubs weather
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