We've got a small slate with a lot of afternoon games. It's been a grind of late, but it's still only Game No. 12 of 162 for most teams. There is a long way to go!
These are my favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Thursday. April 10.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 10
Feltner u15.5 outs (-110 at bet365)
Priester o5.5 hits allowed (+115 at bet365)
Buehler u1.5 walks allowed (+125 at bet365)
Today's SP best bets
Brewers vs. Rockies
The angle: The Brewers put up 17 runs in Colorado yesterday and could be doing the same vs. Ryan Feltner
The move: Ryan Feltner Under 15.5 outs (-110 at bet365)
Ryan Feltner's numbers drop off a cliff at home in the altitude. Since 2023, his K/9 at home is 6.9 vs. 8.4 on the road, with an ERA 1.50 points higher at Coors Field. The Colorado Rockies right-hander just gave up eight hits and three runs to the Athletics at home in his last start and has yet to pitch into the sixth inning. He has also not touched more than 90 pitches.
The Milwaukee Brewers bats have adjusted to the altitude and put together 17 runs on 13 hits last night. It might seem like the bullpen got a lot of work, but the middle relievers for the home side are all available, and Feltner projects for 15.1 outs. He averaged just 84 pitches per start over his last 20 games in 2024.
Brewers vs. Rockies
The angle: Quinn Priester is making his team debut but is going to get hit around
The move: Quinn Priester Over 5.5 hits allowed (+115 at bet365)
Quinn Priester was just acquired from the Red Sox and allowed six hits over four innings on April 3 in Triple-A. Over his 99+ MLB innings, he has allowed 114 hits, so projecting more than a hit per inning today in Colorado is a safe bet. THE BAT is projecting just under six hits allowed on 82 pitches, which could even be a conservative pitch count.
The Rockies are not a great offense, but Coors masks some issues as they are hitting .264 at home (11th) vs. .203 on the road (20th). Milwaukee's Tyler Alexander gave up six hits yesterday on just 11 outs, while three middle relievers might be unavailable, potentially helping Priester increase that pitch count and see more batters.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
The angle: Don't mistake bad pitching for bad control
The move: Walker Buehler Under 1.5 walks allowed (+125 at bet365)
Walker Buehler has been bad early in his Boston Red Sox tenure. He has given up nine runs over 9+ innings and is not getting deep into his starts. However, he has walked just one of 43 batters to begin the season. He was also a pitcher who walked one batter for every four innings in his prime, so getting this at plus money is some expected value.
The Toronto Blue Jays are also not an offense to fear. The right-hander can pitch right at the Toronto lineup and doesn't have to nibble, even against the heart of this order.
Buehler can get this Under with a full leash, or he could get knocked around again and throw 80 pitches. Either path could be profitable.
Not intended for use in MA.
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