The Atlanta Braves are trying to climb out of the early-season hole they dug themselves in, and getting a series win against the rival Philadelphia Phillies would be a good start.
That will be easier said than done, as they’ll have to dig in against Jesus Luzardo, who's been dealing in his first two starts for the Phillies.
My Phillies vs. Braves predictions highlight a player prop for Luzardo, plus more MLB picks for this NL East clash with first pitch set to go at Truist Park in Atlanta at 7:15 pm ET, on Thursday, April 10.
Phillies vs Braves prediction
My Phillies vs Braves best bet: Jesus Luzardo 7+ strikeouts (+128 at bet365)
The Atlanta Braves’ horrendous start has been well-documented, and they enter tonight’s NL East showdown against the Philadelphia Phillies with an ugly 2-9 record. Luckily, a baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint, and Atlanta has plenty of time to turn things around, but the bats will have to get going.
It’s a little jarring to see a lineup like this hitting just .215 and ranking 26th in OPS even at this early point in the year. They also haven’t been too patient at the plate, striking out at the sixth-highest rate (25.2%) this season. This means they probably aren’t too happy to see Jesus Luzardo on the mound tonight.
Luzardo’s career with the Phillies has gotten off to a great start. The left-hander began the year allowing two runs on five hits while striking out 11 in five innings against the Nationals. He followed that up by dominating the most stacked lineup in baseball, limiting the Dodgers to just two hits over seven scoreless innings and striking out eight.
He also has plenty of experience against the hitters in this Braves lineup, thanks to his time with the Marlins. Current Braves hitters have a .231 expected batting average against Luzardo, and more importantly, a strikeout rate of 29.3%.
And it’s all their impact hitters outside of Ozzie Albies. Matt Olsen, Austin Riley, Michael Harris, and Orlando Arcia all have strikeout rates of 30% or higher against the Phillies' sizzling southpaw.
Luzardo has a strikeout prop sitting at 5.5, which is not surprisingly heavily juiced to the Over. Instead, I’m taking his alternate strikeout total at 7+, which is priced at a much nicer +128. He's hit that mark in both starts this season.
Phillies vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Jesus Luzardo 7+ strikeouts
Spencer Schwellenbach Under 2.5 earned runs
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases
The Braves counter Luzardo with Spencer Schwellenbach, and the rough start certainly hasn’t been his fault. The 24-year-old right-hander hasn’t allowed a run while giving up just three hits and striking out 14 over his first 14 innings of work this season. Let’s add his Under 2.5 earned runs to this SGP, something he did in all three starts against the Phillies last season.
That said, if there’s someone who can change those squeaky-clean numbers, it’s Bryce Harper. The two-time MVP is off to a solid start, hitting .279 with an .845 OPS. He also has solid numbers vs. Schwellenbach, going 3-for-6 with a double. Let’s round this SGP out with Harper to get 2+ total bases, something he's done in three of his last six.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Braves odds
Phillies vs Braves live odds
Phillies vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +105 | Atlanta -125
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-200) | Atlanta -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Phillies vs Braves trend
The Braves have cashed the Under in 102 of their last 165 games for +39.20 units and a 21% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.
How to watch Phillies vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Thursday, 4-10-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCS-Philadelphia, FDSN-South |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Jesus Luzardo (2-0, 1.50 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Spencer Schwellenbach (1-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Phillies vs Braves latest injuries
Phillies vs Braves weather
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