It's a small slate of Thursday baseball, but that doesn't mean there isn't value to be found.
We've searched the board for some of our favorite bets. Try to stay within five cents of the recommended pricing.
Here are my free MLB player props for Thursday, April 10.
Best MLB player props today
Casas Over 0.5 RBI (+210 at BetMGM)
Olson to hit a HR (+550 at BetMGM)
O'Hoppe Over 1.5 TB (+150 at bet365)
MLB props for April 10
Triston Casas Over 0.5 RBI (+210 at BetMGM)
We'll ride the early trend of the Boston Red Sox putting up lots of runs in the comfort of Fenway Park yet again — yesterday's 2-1 extra-innings loss notwithstanding. So far this season, the Red Sox have been scorching at home with an average of 6.6 runs, including the 18-run outburst on Sunday Night Baseball against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Triston Casas has been one of my favorite hitters this season. Being in the clean-up spot has benefits, but that value is only as good as the matchup. In this instance, it's pretty good.
Toronto Blue Jays righty Chris Bassitt enters with one of the highest hard-hit rates in his career. It's a small sample size (as is anything right now), but we've seen a decline in this area for three straight seasons. He also holds an actual ERA of 0.71 with an expected ERA of 2.87, which screams regression.
Casas' placement in the lineup puts him behind three Boston hitters with absurd hard-hit rates of over 50% so far this season. This lineup takes advantage of some of Bassitt's early warning signs, and Casas will be in a prime position to reap the awards.
Matt Olson to hit a home run (+550 at BetMGM)
Matt Olson has just one home run this season, which seems unlucky. After all, he's improved his approach at the plate so far.
The Atlanta Braves slugger's biggest issue over the past few seasons has been striking out far too often. While I expect his current frequency to go up (at least some), it's worth noting that he's started the year with just a 16% K rate and isn't chasing nearly as much.
Philadelphia Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo is a chase-reliant pitcher who doesn't fare nearly as well when he's not getting them. That's best indicated by a hard-hit rate that exceeds 40%.
Olson will take advantage of that if he continues his patient plate approach. He leads the Braves in hard-hit rate against Luzardo's two primary pitches. I like the value of this number, especially considering the temperature is in the 70s in Atlanta tonight.
Logan O'Hoppe Over 1.5 total bases (+150 at bet365)
Los Angeles Angels catcher Logan O'Hoppe started the month like this: homer, homer, homer, homer. He's cooled since the start of the series with the Tampa Bay Rays, with just one hit in his last five at-bats. He'll break out of it today.
Zack Littell is having hard-hit issues, which is nothing new, and O'Hoppe certainly has power. It's the pitch mix that intrigues me the most, though
Littell is an off-speed heavy pitcher, with the slider and sinker leading the way. Perhaps he departs from that based on the matchup, but the other pitches have been flat-out bad this season. If he doesn't, O'Hoppe is well-positioned.
Last season, O'Hoppe was second amongst Angels in slugging and hard-hit rate against the slider. Against the sinker, he was first in both metrics. So far this year, he's been even better against those pitches, ranking first in each slash mark.
I made this price around +110, so I see a nice edge against the number for my MLB picks.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
