Two teams looking ahead to guaranteed postseason berths will end their regular seasons against each other on Sunday afternoon as the Milwaukee Bucks play host to the Detroit Pistons.
These teams have played three high-scoring games against each other so far this season, and I’ll be taking the Over again in my Pistons vs. Bucks predictions below.
Keep reading to get the full analysis of this regular-season finale in my NBA picks for Sunday, April 13.
Pistons vs Bucks prediction
My best bet: Over 224 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Both the Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons have clinched their playoff spots, and after Friday’s win for the Bucks, they’re also locked into the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds in the Eastern Conference, respectively. Typically, games like this offer an opportunity for Under bettors, as unmotivated teams playing backups don’t tend to be particularly efficient on offense.
However, I don’t think we’re looking at quite that situation for Sunday. First, let’s look at the Pistons, who are in the playoffs after having the worst record in the NBA for the last two seasons. Head coach J.B. Bickerstaff will want to keep his young team sharp heading into the postseason, and his team has talked about how another game against the Bucks will be a good warmup for playoff basketball — not exactly a sign that Detroit will pack it in for its regular-season finale.
The Pistons have been keeping up their season-long scoring average down the stretch, averaging 117 points in their last three games. Detroit won’t be rushing Jaden Ivey (17.6 ppg) back into play, and reserve Isaiah Stewart is on the injury report, but all the key parts are expected to play Sunday. That includes Cade Cunningham (26.1 ppg), as well as Sixth Man of the Year contender Malik Beasley (16.2 ppg), Tobias Harris (13.9 ppg), and Jalen Duren (11.9 ppg).
Milwaukee will have more players sitting out, with plans to rest Bobby Portis (13.9 ppg) and Brook Lopez (13.0 ppg), while Damian Lillard (24.9 ppg) remains out while recuperating from his blood clot. However, Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.4 ppg) is expected to play, and any significant minutes for him mean this Bucks offense will remain lively and dangerous.
These teams have hit the Over in all three matchups this year, scoring at least 235 points each time. NBA odds have the total well below that number, perhaps due to low expectations for a meaningless season finale. Still, with these rosters at least resembling what we’ve seen from both teams all season long, I’m taking the Over.
Pistons vs Bucks same-game parlay
Over 223.5
Pistons moneyline
Bucks team total Over 105.5
I like the Over for today’s game, and the two other legs of my SGP build on that bet. The first will be to take the Pistons to win outright.
While I’m not comfortable laying the points, considering Milwaukee is 10-0 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, the truth is that the Bucks are an older team that will be resting, limiting, or otherwise sitting several of their veteran players, while the Pistons are playing something closer to their normal lineup as they prepare for the first postseason appearance for most of their young players.
However, I’m still going to take the Bucks to hit the Over on an alternate team total of 105.5 points. Milwaukee has going above that total in each of its last 13 games, and I don’t expect this team to look so different today that they won’t be able to get to that soft total yet again. With this negatively correlating with the Pistons moneyline bet, it adds significant value to our SGP.
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Pistons vs Bucks odds
Pistons vs Bucks live odds
Pistons vs Bucks opening odds
- Spread: Detroit -7 | Milwaukee +7
- Moneyline: Detroit -300 | Milwaukee +240
- Over/Under: Over 223.5 | Under 223.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Pistons vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Pistons have played to a 42-37-2 record against the spread this season, with the Bucks having compiled a 43-37-2 ATS record (thanks to playing one extra game in the NBA Cup Finals).
- Similarly, the Over has a 41-39-1 record in Detroit’s games this season and a nearly identical 42-39-1 record when Milwaukee has played.
- Milwaukee is 3-0 against Detroit this year, and has also gone 2-0-1 ATS in those games.
- The Bucks have played to an average total of 228.0 ppg on the season, with the Pistons averaging 228.6 ppg this year.
Pistons vs Bucks trend
The Over is 3-0 in the three meetings between the Bucks and Pistons this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Pistons vs. Bucks.
How to watch Pistons vs Bucks
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Sunday, 4-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Pistons vs Bucks latest injuries
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