We’ve got a fun Thursday to look forward to in the major leagues, and there should be some home runs hit in the nightcap.
We’ll take a look at two attackable pitchers who are bound to give up some home runs tonight and pick out the best hitters to profit with.
Here are my free MLB player props for Thursday, April 10.
Best MLB home run props today
Wilyer Abreu (+475 at DraftKings)
Marcell Ozuna (+360 at DraftKings)- Sean Murphy (+500 at DraftKings)
HR picks for April 10
Wilyer Abreu (+475 at DraftKings)
Chris Bassitt has allowed over one homer per nine innings in the past two seasons, and as a result we’ll pick out someone from the Boston Red Sox to go yard.
Nobody on this team came close to hitting sinkers like Wilyer Abreu last year, and it was hard to catch him and his 1.108 expected slugging percentage. He added five round-trippers to boot, and so far this year he’s off to a flying start with three homers in 13 games.
With his proficiency against sinkers and Bassitt continuing to pitch to more contact in the air — and quality contact, at that — firing up Abreu will be a good idea to begin the night.
Marcell Ozuna (+360 at DraftKings)
Jesus Luzardo has been a nice story this season for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he’s quickly returning to the form we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from the southpaw. With that said, he’s taken a big step back in the past few seasons when it comes to rolling up ground balls, something that was concerning last year in particular, given his low strikeout rate.
Luzardo has been cooking in that regard this year, but he’s also allowed three barrels in his two starts, which is cause for concern here as he sells out for strikeouts. I’ll go with Marcell Ozuna to connect on another homer as he continues swinging for the fences, putting a charge into a few on Wednesday night to no avail.
The Big Bear crushes lefties and is 3-for-10 off Luzardo in his career to boot, homering in one of those at-bats.
Sean Murphy (+500 at DraftKings)
I won’t leave this game — or Luzardo — alone, going with a second member of the Atlanta Braves to take him deep.
That man will be none other than Sean Murphy, a prolific home run hitter a couple of seasons ago before battling myriad injuries.
Murphy has gone right back to business with a homer in just nine at-bats this year, and it’s important to remember that this man had one of the highest xSLG marks in the league in 2023. He hit .274 and slugged .488 off lefties that season, and he’s always been a competent bat versus sliders — which he’ll see many of here.
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+650)
- Jose Ramirez, Guardians (+390)
- Mike Trout, Angels (+290)
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
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