UCLA vs Maryland Odds, Picks and Predictions: Terrapins Stop Their Slide

The Maryland Terrapins try to end a two-game slide as they welcome the UCLA Bruins to College Park tonight.

This should be an entertaining matchup between a pair of 8-2 teams both ranked in the AP Top 25 with UCLA at No. 16 and Maryland dropping to No. 20 after falling to Tennessee on the weekend. College basketball odds opened with the Bruins as slim 1-point road faves but have since shifted to favor the Terps at -1.5.

Here are my best free UCLA vs. Maryland college basketball picks and predictions for NCAA hoops action on December 14.

UCLA vs Maryland best odds

UCLA vs Maryland picks and predictions

The Terps might be coming off a pair of losses but they weren't at home for either of those contests and should find it easier to knock down shots at Xfinity Center tonight, especially since they shoot a sizzling 56.9% from two-point range and the Bruins are 261st in the country in opponent two-point percentage (52.5%).

UCLA's biggest strength is its abundance of scoring options and ability to take care of the ball. However, the Terrapins are loaded with versatile defenders and don't need to force turnovers to be successful since they play with a more disciplined style.

The Terps are limiting foes to 38.3% shooting from the floor (including just 27.6% from beyond the arc) and they still played well on that end of the floor in their recent defeats. 

With Maryland doing its best offensive work closer to the rim where the Bruins struggle to defend, and also having the ability to limit UCLA's top scorers on the perimeter, back the home team on the spread.

My best bet: Maryland -1.5 (-107 at Pinnacle)

UCLA vs Maryland spread analysis

Maryland started off its season with eight straight wins, headlined by a 71-66 home victory against Illinois two weeks ago. Since then, the Terrapins have dropped back-to-back contests against Wisconsin and Tennessee where they failed to crack the 60-point plateau. 

They went a pathetic 2-24 from beyond the arc against the Vols and also got killed on the glass surrendering 20 offensive rebounds. They shot better from deep versus Wisconsin on the road but went just 11-31 from two-point range and made it to the line for just 12 free-throw attempts. 

Despite those recent offensive struggles, Maryland still ranks a respectable 24th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Maryland also ranks 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency and has held opponents to a 43.4 effective field goal percentage in its last three games despite facing ranked teams in Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Illinois. 

UCLA has won five in a row and is fresh off a 23-point rout of the Denver Pioneers of the Summit League. The Bruins also know what it's like to go on a mini-skid since they also lost back-to-back contests against ranked opponents before their winning streak.

The only difference is that it was their defensive play that led to those defeats with UCLA surrendering 51 second-half points to Illinois on November 18 before allowing Baylor to drop 80 points two days later.

Offensively, they are a finely-tuned machine that turns the ball over on just 14.2% of their possessions (eighth in the country) and ranks seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom.

UCLA vs Maryland Over/Under analysis

Both teams have multiple players who can get buckets. The Bruins have four players scoring in double digits including 2022 first-team All-Pac-12 selection Jaime Jaquez Jr. who is averaging 17.4 ppg on 57.8% shooting. Sharp-shooting sixth man David Singleton sits just outside that mark with 9.9 ppg on 49/47/90 shooting splits. 

The Terps also have four players averaging double-digits in points with guard Jahmir Young leading the way with 15.6 points and 3.4 assists per game.

That said, there's reason to think that the Under 141.5 might be the play. The Terps have been an excellent defensive team under Kevin Willard and have allowed just 60 points per game over their last four. 

We mentioned that the Bruins have been mediocre at defending inside but they do an excellent job on the perimeter where they hold foes to 30.2% shooting from long range and force turnovers at a high rate. While the Terps are highly efficient inside the arc they shoot just 31.1% from deep which means that they typically aren't a high-scoring team.

In addition, neither offense really pushes the pace with the Bruins 140th in the country in adjusted tempo and the Terps 240th.

UCLA vs Maryland betting trend to know

The Terrapins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Find more College basketball betting trends for UCLA vs. Maryland.

UCLA vs Maryland game info

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